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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (15237)	7/18/2002 11:04:14 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim, I don't know if the market is going to rally tomorrow or not, and even if it does, odds favour some sort of decline first. However, I think this weekly Dow chart shows this last week's lows are highly likely to hold. Not only are we at the intersection of two strong trendlines, but the green ADX line is now at around 8. If this pans out, I can't see the other indices not following suit. stockcharts.com[e,a]wbclnyay[d19970718,20020718][p][vc60][iut!ue12,26,9!ub14!ud10!ll14!lc10!lp14,3,3!lah12,26,9!lo14][J5159933,Y]&listNum=11

To: jim_p who wrote (15237)	7/19/2002 12:23:11 AM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Jim, The thought crossed my mind today that the VIX has been overstaying its welcome in the 40's. I am of the belief that this downside pressure should end quickly, either tomorrow or Monday. The other thought that crossed my mind is that the markets have gone through a long, drawn out bowel cleansing the past few months. I know that the "bear market rally" crowd is predicting a retracement to somewhere between 1500-1600 for the NAZ. I would think that the severity of this plunge and the extremity of our favorite indicators would portend significantly more than a 10-15% rally. I would be inclined to think 25-30% minimum. Warp

To: jim_p who wrote (15237)	7/19/2002 11:15:55 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim P & Warpfactor, in reply to your postings. >>>In looking at prior spikes, it looks like we should have started the rally by now? <<< >>> The thought crossed my mind today that the VIX has been overstaying its welcome in the 40's. I am of the belief that this downside pressure should end quickly, either tomorrow or Monday. <<< It has been my experience that the VIX tends to indicate an intermediate turn anywhere from two weeks to two months too early. The time deley is especially true with a low VIX. I'm not so sure about a high one, but my point is we're only in the first week or so. Give it a little time. Getting in early is bound to expose you to jumps, bumps & bruises due to the volatility. Sharp