Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jesica Dawnet who wrote (20538)	7/19/2002 5:37:57 PM
From: Rich Wolf	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

OT Jesica re LVLT I don't own LVLT, and would only trade (which I have), it until I see that they can organically grow telecom revs. Maybe they can, if they purchase the right assets out of bk. Nut I am curious what you think you know of accounting issues and possible bk for them? Out of all the longhaul providers, LVLT was the one that really took no part in swaps, didn't rely on IRUs for dark fiber, etc... really, everything that is to be known, is known. And they have enough cash to last perhaps 8 Qs at this point, without any additional financing, if they don't spend their cash horde on acquisitions. They dodged some revenue covenant issues with their bank revolvers with the last two acquisitions (dubiously categorized as 'telecom revs', but no one flinched on it, so it passed legal muster), and w/o additional rev growth (or acquisitions) they are still okay wrt existing terms, until late '03. So there is nothing that would push them into bk before xmas of '03, that I can see. Mind you, I don't want to 'own' LVLT, and if I did, I would have sold on the recent pop. I don't see a viable business model for them unless they can buy WCG outright, e.g., but that's another story. Good luck speculating! obtw, I bought LU at 1.6 and sold at 2.4... will look to buy if it retests the 1.6 area again, which is highly likely to happen within a few weeks. LU has larger near-term financial 'issues' than LVLT. The market would seem to agree, seeing as how LVLT has continued 'levitating' even today. I agree re your comment that LU is a likely survivor, and not a bk candidate (at this time), hence an interesting speculative buy. But for me, only at the right price, esp in this market. When I saw it lift to the high 2s, I was still certain that my sale was correct. And I won't buy above 2, it has further to drop, imho.