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To: SOROS who wrote (2591)7/19/2002 1:12:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Record Trade Gap Hit Dollar, by Kyle Peterson

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The dollar recovered some of its overnight losses but remained lower against the euro and yen at midday on Friday, weakened again by sluggish U.S. stocks and news of a record U.S. trade gap in May.

"I think mainly it's U.S. equities," said Tim Mazanec, director at Investors Bank and Trust Company. "We seem to be headed lower there. The market may be a little extended long euro. But at the same time, if we don't get much performance here, that's the trade to be in."

The euro peaked overnight at 2-1/2-year high of $1.0210 (EUR=) before trimming gains to trade at $1.0141, up 0.25 percent from Thursday's New York close.

The dollar fell to a low of 115.56 yen (JPY=) before climbing back to 115.84 yen, still a loss of 0.57 percent and above Tuesday's 17-month low of 115.34 yen.

Pressure mounted on the dollar as the Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) slumped to its lowest level since September 2001 amid news of a criminal probe into drug maker Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News) and a weak outlook for high-tech leaders like Sun Microsystems Inc. (NasdaqNM:SUNW - News) The bad news for those firms added to growing concern about sagging U.S. equity markets.

The dollar also suffered on news that the trade gap grew to $37.64 billion from an upwardly revised $36.14 billion in April as American demand for imported automobiles, food and consumer goods hit records, the Commerce Department said.

The greenback has been under pressure lately because of the enormous trade gap. As the economy draws in imported goods, foreign investors have shunned U.S. assets, causing an outflow of dollars and an unfunded trade gap.

"(The trade deficit) eclipsed anyone's expectation. Trade will be a very large drag on growth in the second quarter and is off-setting the contribution in inventory upswing," said John Herrmann, Chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal. "The dollar must adjust lower against major currency blocks."

The trade data overshadowed a report showing inflation at the consumer level rose less than expected last month.

INTERVENTION WATCH CONTINUES

While the dollar fell against the yen, its losses stopped short of the 115 yen mark that traders have come to believe is the near-term threshold for intervention. Japanese officials have led markets to think the Ministry of Finance would intervene to weaken the yen near that level. They have complained that a strong yen is a drag on exports.

Japan sold yen for dollars on at least seven days in the past two months but has been absent in recent weeks, even as the dollar has continued its decline.

During Asian trade, Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami told a news conference there were few reasons for the dollar to fall further, while Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said he was concerned about rapid currency moves.

IMM floor traders said yen traders were alert to the possibility that the Bank of Japan could enter the market at 115 yen, but they were not necessarily counting on it.

"I think they're certainly pared down position-wise to be aware of it so they won't get crushed by it," said one IMM floor trader. "But I wouldn't say they're expecting it. They'd be trading away from it if they were."

LOOKING FORWARD

Dealers said trade was light after the European close heading in the weekend. Traders were looking ahead to data next week on consumer sentiment.

On Friday, the University of Michigan will release its final report on consumer sentiment in July. Analysts forecast the index to come in at 87.7, down from 92.4 in the previous report.

"I'm looking for next Friday's consumer confidence figures, because if that continues to fall, it's just not going to be good," Mazanec said. "The bottom line is that two-thirds of the economy is consumers. All these other numbers to me are second tier."

Other key U.S. data due next week include reports on durable goods and new and existing home sales on Thursday
-end-



To: SOROS who wrote (2591)7/19/2002 1:16:34 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 89467
 
article: Eurostocks end torrid week with bruising falls
by Gideon Long

*****
me: rising Euro is destructive to their economy, but why?
their Asian imports are unchanged in price
capital flows are moving toward Europe, which should be good
because American customers will be spending less???
because European banks hold significant USTBonds???
because they face a similiar debt collapse???
because declining dollar is calamitous for world economy???
methinks yes, yes, yes, yes !!!
:end me
*****

LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - Some 200 billion euros were wiped off the value of Europe's top 300 companies on Friday as the region's stock markets ended one of the most turbulent weeks in their recent history with further punishing falls.

The French markets dived nearly 5.5 percent while London and Frankfurt lost more than 4.5 percent as companies on both sides of the Atlantic continued to serve up more evidence of pain than of gain in their earnings announcements.

Shares in Sweden's Ericsson (Stockholm:ERICb.ST - News) tumbled 18 percent after it announced one of the most discounted rights issues ever seen while German technology group Epcos (XETRA:EPCGn.DE - News) plummeted 15 percent after warning of a full-year operating loss.

By 1654 GMT, with only Frankfurt still trading, the FTSE Eurotop 300 index (^FTEU3 - News) of pan-European blue chips was 4.81 percent lower at 935.48 points.

That marked its second biggest one-day loss of the year, just behind the 5.2 percent fall registered this Monday, and left the index 5.5 lower for the week, anchored at at level not seen seen October 1998.

The narrower DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index (Zurich:^STOXX50E - News) dropped 5.28 percent, slithering below the 2,700-point mark. It is also mired at near-four-year lows.

Markets have been yanked up and down with dizzying speed this week and volatility remains perilously high.

"What markets need is direction and, more than anything else, confidence," said Roland Lescure, head of strategy and research at CDC Ixis Asset Management in Paris. "The market is cheap but that doesn't mean it's going to go up from here. That's going to take time."

The Ericsson and Epcos news helped chop more than six percent off the DJ Stoxx technology index (Zurich:^SX8P - News) but the sell-off was by no means limited to high-tech stocks.

The healthcare, insurance and energy indices all lost between five and six percent, rekindling fears that the broader market could be in for further blood-letting.

"I don't buy into the idea of a further 20 or 30 percent fall in share prices, or of lower long term returns from equities," Lescure said.

"However, in the short term anything could happen."

DISPARITY

Once again, there was a marked disparity between bleak corporate news and positive economic news.

U.S. trade deficit data highlighted robust demand for imported autos, food and consumer goods while U.S. consumer price data showed inflation in the world's economic powerhouse remained subdued.

But the data did little to convince Wall Street investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) lost 3.22 percent, the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) was 2.49 percent lower and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) slipped 1.77 percent.

Next week, European investors will look to French telecom equipment maker Alcatel (Paris:CGEP.PA - News), chip maker STM (Paris:STM.PA - News), drug giants AstraZeneca (London:AZN.L - News) and Novartis (NOVZn.VX) and banks HBOS (London:HBOS.L - News) and Hypovereinsbank (XETRA:HVMG.DE - News) to lift their flagging spirits.

But if this week is anything to go by, the news will not be encouraging.

"Europe appears to be lagging behind the U.S.," Lescure said. "The cost-cutting that took place in the United States last year has only taken place in Europe more recently and will have to continue for a few more months.

"We can't expect a recovery in earnings until the end of this year or the beginning of next."

ERICSSON POUNDED

Ericsson stock was pounded after the loss-making telecoms equipment maker, trying to raise funds to cut debt and weather slumping demand, priced a $3.25 billion rights issue at a thumping discount of 74 percent.

It also announced its seventh straight quarter of losses and a further 5,000 job cuts.

"The share is falling on the below-consensus second-quarter sales, falling orders for mobile systems, the worse sales outlook, the rights issue and uncertainty why the price has been set so low," said Johan Strandberg, analyst at Deutsche Bank.

The news dragged Alcatel down 12.5 percent and Nokia (NOK1V.HE), which disappointed the market with its outlook on Thursday, fell 5.4 percent.

Healthcare stocks were buffeted by consolidation factors, fears over generic drug competition and concerns over the sector's exposure to the weak dollar, which remains well below parity with the euro (EUR=).

AstraZeneca offloaded 9.2 percent while Switzerland's Roche (ROCZg.VX) shed 8.1 percent.

Sentiment on the sector was also hit by news of a probe into U.S. drug giant Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News). The company said it believed the investigation was linked to alleged fraudulent book-keeping at one of its plants in Puerto Rico.

Insurers remained weak on concerns over solvency requirements and their exposure to falling equity markets. Zurich Financial (ZURZn.VX) was particularly badly hit, tumbling 11.2 percent.

Some saw the latest sell-off was a signal to buy.

"This is a good moment to be buying stocks, valuations are attractive and economic growth is coming through," said Teun Draaisma, European strategist at Morgan Stanley.

"A risk factor to be watched is the possibility that markets go into a sentiment-driven downwards spiral -- this would have a negative wealth effect, threatening the economic recovery."

(Additional reporting by Gareth Nicholson in London and Jan Strupczewski in Stockholm)

-end-