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Strategies & Market Trends : Winter in the Great White North -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ralfph who wrote (2587)	7/19/2002 12:22:31 PM
From: teevee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8273

ralph, What effect would a invasion have on the price of gold? I have no opinion on that question but have thought about it. I would think gold would go up....but would it ? The market does not respond in a rational manner does it ? If there is an invasion, I expect there would be an initial oil price shock in anticipation of a global oil crisis. I would liquidate every oil and gas stock I have into the ensuing rally. There is no doubt that Saddam would be replaced with a puppet regime that was pro western, providing oil and gas development and investment opportunities to the USA and Britain. Such an event could bust OPEC. Iraq's oil endowment is second only to Saudi Arabia. This is only a wild guess, but I think gold would also initially move upwards, but with a collapse in oil prices that would accompany a pro western Iraqi regime, the gold price would probably fall off too. I notice that various government's, including Canada, are dusting off and reviewing emergency plans for a global oil crisis. I assume this is in preparation for the invasion of Iraq sometime later this year, after being given notice by Dubya and Blair for what is coming down the pipe. As an aside, In order to maintain a certain level of destabilization in the region, I wonder if a Kurdish faction would be installed as the new leadership, inflicting pain and suffering for the next 30 years as what was done to them by Saddam?

To: ralfph who wrote (2587)	7/19/2002 1:52:28 PM
From: marcos	Respond to of 8273

' 1:25PM: Buy interest continues to appear notably limited.' ... from briefing.com's current bit on yahoo - ca.finance.yahoo.com That's one way of putting it, eh ... 'buy interest notably limited', lol ... 'Sell? - to whom?' .... quite the day for gold though, uptick of 7.00 .... entirely possible it makes an attempt on 330 next week .. ? - we shall see ... if not next week, then the week after, or another after that, before the end of september for near certain sure ..... then the next step is to break it, start using 330 as support instead of resistance, preparatory for an assault on 350 .... some of our juniors could move up today, pretty lame so far all things considered, but i've begged off the day job for midday ngt.v - AGM today, we are promised a full report from an attendee ... then tomorrow the plan is for Albert Matter to meet with Chester Millar of aas.v to discuss merger options .... big question is what ratio to use, i say straight across 1-to-1 .... ngt shareprice is beat down more compared to aas, but that's because National has done considerable financing lately, and Alamos has still to do more, which will give it the same sort of pressure when placement paper starts coming free-trading ... no biggie in the long run if they can get the project rolling ... best way is to determine to get it done no matter what, and hire a fairness opinion from an independent third party trusted by both AM and CM ..... much depends on how these two get along, can they resolve issues or not [edit] - piece by Saville - kitco.com ... a lot of the goldbug stuff posted to kitco seems to me way over the top, but i like this guy, no wild predictions, just thoughtful chart work [edit 2] - 'This means the Dow is going to 800 or lower! ' - kitco.com ... see what i mean, that just might be construed by some as a shade over the top, lol