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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Kibler who wrote (2301)	7/19/2002 3:03:44 PM
From: Scott Mc	Respond to of 2561

Good luck, it seems like a good time to try these things, Scott

To: James Kibler who wrote (2301)	7/21/2002 5:30:46 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

Jim, I was away last week. I went from 1000-2000 trades per year to 0 for the last 2 months. I find this amazing. I am at 70% CASH and 15% REITs and 15% stocks. With the ^RMS under it's 200 day moving average now... you may want to trade tightly and sell into the rallies around 425 unless the general market hits a bottom soon. I would probably stick to convertible preferreds if I felt compelled to buy any REITs at this time. VNO.PA is off 12% from it's high. RA.PA is near it's low, as well as RA class B. GLB.PA is getting attractive. EQR.PG & EQR/PE are at lows for the year. EOP.PB is attractive. CEI.PB is down 12% from it's high and ASN.PA is down 15% from it's high. The REITs in the S&P 500 will be travel similarly to the S&P 500, so look for some wild swings. Recognize that you are trading the S&P, not REITs when you choose to do so. CEI scares me due to their poor performance for the last 4-5 years. I would research the insider buying patterns and feel comfortable if I saw some $1,000,000 accumulations by Rainwater and others. HIW is very cheap if their rents and occupancies stay near even for the next few years. If I felt like buying out of favor stuff, CRE might be appealing also. PP, TCT and EOP all are attractively prices as is EQR. The Hotel REITs are getting interesting also. All of these will be likely be neutral to bad investments if we have any more terrorist activities, or if the economy stagnates for 3-5 years. My biggest worry is if the dollar is going to correct. We have been running a trade deficit for years in the $300-400 billion per year range. Eventually, the dollar will pay the price by becoming weaker. For some reason this hasn't happened, but like all excesses, eventually things will revert to the norm.