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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (121834)7/20/2002 12:53:45 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
Hell of a post.

You didn't mention the chaos a terrorist attack on the US would cause.

central question must be answered:
for 10 years federal deficits occurred, peaking in 1991 at $1000 billion for 10 years trade gap widened, now at over $400 billion annually yet somehow interest rates dropped steadily after 1994 yet somehow inflation rates dropped steadily for most of the decade yet somehow the USdollar strengthened by 50% versus JYen and DMark thru the decade
how did that happen?????????


Productivity gains in the late '80s to mid '90s caused by technology coupled with the beneficial effects on earnings caused by the corporate slim downs that took place in the mid to late '80s, as well as the fact that the Cold War was over. Lots of foreigners put their money here because their economies were collapsing, especially in Asia. These factors created a basis for a real boom in the US fueled by higher corporate profits. The stock market naturally reflected this healthy scenario, but we got ahead of ourselves in the late '90s and we are now paying the price. That's my opinion, for all it's worth.

I saw the market tanking and decided to ride it out since I'm LTB&H, thinking it would provide good buying opportunities on the way down. I think we're now in the midst of irrational pessimism, though I have to admit that so far the Super Bears have been right.