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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2656)	7/19/2002 6:46:39 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Commentary For Friday's Market Henry Ford Pitbull Investor Thursday Evening July 18th, 2002 Once again the abject fear in the marketplace froze investors as good news is discounted and unfounded fears affect investor psychology. The DOW and the SP 500 futures suffered setbacks, but did manage to stay above weekly support. Looking at an hourly chart of the NASDAQ over the last three days, it made the third higher-high and higher-low..ending up as the most bullish of the indices despited negative earnings on a couple of belwhether stocks. NASDAQ DOW and SP all ended on support lines for options expirations tomorrow. I am sure at this point some of you are saying what in the world is there to be bullish about or look for ANY improvement in the markets? ....and once again we saw 135 stocks reporting today in the SP500 with 119 meeting or beating the street and only 16 who didn't match expectations. THIS IS THE BEEF and at some point these folks are going to get the message and start buying the reality. Warren Buffett plunked down a cool bet of 100 mil on telcom this week when the rest of us are doing our best to bury it.......A wise man once said "FEAR IS THE DARKROOM WHERE NEGATIVES DEVELOP" I really find it hard and painful (despite my ever increasing bullish attitude).... to watch day after day for the last few weeks as investors bail and pull their mutual funds out, but I have lived through a few of these. I have to admit this is the worst one psychologically, because of the slow grinding nature as we try to set a bottom, but this is the way good bottoms are formed. It IS painful...but it is equally painful to be left out when things suddenly and seemingly inexplicably turn and leave most in the dust. The VIX Volatility Index) stayed under the upper bollinger Band again today. For the first time in two weeks we got 2 days in a row, and like a rubber band that is stretched too far it has to snap back...when it does it will be violent and profitable for those on board. This "Fear" gauge needs to drop under 36.90 to get the bears covering their tracks. We ended at 39.95 this evening. Can we still go lower...of course, but the downside appears to be limited a lot more than the upside. 8235 is a much talked about area for retesting the DOW, but much more likely, if we do go back down, would be to make a double bottom at Monday's lows. Once the S&P gets over 936.50 I believe the bears will be pressured to cover their shorts, and over the ensuing couple of days we could actually see a buying panic to match the selling panic we saw today. That's all for now...keep an ear and an eye on this weeks market action. I truly believe this is the time for opportunity. << 4:03 PM Friday July 19th UPDATE: Took out 8000 by a good bit then rallied back... Monday will be exciting methinks....Too hard to call right now, but two scenarios leap to mind: 1. Panic gap down on the open followed by rally into the close 2. Orderly rally from the open. After everyone gets home tonight and turns on their computers or hears the news they will have all weekend to worry about what instructions to give their brokers Monday morning....Without more input I would guess on scenario 1, but we will wait to see,,,In any event we are getting some great bargains here and believe 60 days from now we are going to be pretty happy campers. Nobody is going to call the bottom to the day, but if you you aren't invested you can't participate..... All of the issues we tossed out this morning held up very well through the selloff in the afternoon.