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To: TGPTNDR who wrote (85424)	7/19/2002 7:46:52 PM
From: jjayxxxx	Respond to of 275872

TGP, re: <This is the third month in a row of decrease in rate of change in bookings. I'm guessing next month change turns negative.> Got me curious, so I went and looked at the last 5 years bookings data (M/M change): 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Jan 0.0 107.4 37.8 -186.7 113.3 319.7 -518.1 16.7 Feb 103.5 79.9 -41.0 -130.1 32.1 74.2 -243.3 92.0 Mar 124.2 -239.5 86.0 -110.4 228.1 245.0 -413.6 98.7 Apr 61.1 -86.5 67.0 -21.0 148.2 169.2 -476.0 159.7 May -40.5 -173.8 46.0 5.0 109.1 51.2 2.1 109.6 Jun 52.3 -11.6 60.3 -174.4 46.3 29.2 7.3 53.9 Jul -68.2 -183.3 101.0 -215.1 -29.6 105.4 38.2 Aug -22.1 -109.9 -3.4 -146.0 34.2 82.6 -54.3 Sep 30.4 -104.1 106.5 -90.3 -54.4 -100.7 -100.6 Oct 76.9 55.1 45.3 156.7 98.8 155.2 30.4 Nov 85.6 118.6 49.4 129.2 85.0 -331.3 -55.5 Dec 204.4 126.7 -82.8 116.2 213.1 -335.0 39.6 As you can see there are a few times that a downward trend resulted in a negative number the next month (May 95, Mar 96, Feb 97, Jul 99), but other times when it didn't (May 97, Feb 99, Jun 00). And if you also look at those examples resulting in a negative month, notice that only Mar 96 was followed by several negative months. The negative stretches in 98 and 01/02 were not preceded by clear trends at all. On the other hand, based on the current overall climate, I'm not going to disagree with you. FWIW, JJ