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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46502)	7/19/2002 8:21:36 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

Yes, VIX was up, but it should have been higher given the stark new lows. And VXN and QQV are on da barbs. Gotta watch out for a gap that doesn't close. Could be breakaway(!) or, more likely, exhaustion.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46502)	7/19/2002 8:27:49 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

If the market cycles go as decribed by the old-timers and the books about bears, we are nailing a new low in pessimism and, more importantly for trading the up-leg, skepticism. We are at the point of recognition now, but it is quite recent. Everyone FINALLY agrees we are in a bear market. Anyone who thinks this is not a recent development needs to go back and study the press and SI the last time the Dow was still up around 10K. Anyway, the next leg up should now be driven by persistent skepticism and too-eager shorting. There is no reason not to expect that we can make targets to the upside that seem lofty. Let's say the S&P gets down to 800, then why not expect that it can kiss a high of 970 or so, just over the putative neckline. That's a run of over 20%. I think tech could do twice as good as that. I wish I had stuck more firmly to the plan, as it seems this call from November, 2001 was indeed correct, including looking for the high in tech in mid-December, 2001 (yes, the composite, not NDX, did make a higher high in January): "The prize is the coming decline, not what's left of this rally." ... sigh... geocities.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46502)	7/19/2002 8:42:05 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

1987… I was naïve about the markets, but knew that something serious was brewing up. A few days before the crash I had a memorable long discussion with a good friend, a Prof. of Math. Our analysis turned out amazingly correct, but neither one of us bought those puts in the end. Consequently, this friend of mine wrote some successful books – but most of the money he made went to feed the current bear. I have several friends who are seriously hurt. I wasn’t as successful (or persuasive) as AJ was in convincing them to sell.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (46502)	7/19/2002 8:55:26 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

patron, Think on this. We have always maintained that the real deal is the credit bubble, not the shocking but less important tech bubble. In the scheme of things, the tech bubble was a bit of a red herring, a side-effect if you will. (For the one or two people who might not have followed things closely over the last 5 or 6 years, the credit bubble is everything. Forget the economic numbers. Forget valuation. "It's the credit bubble, stupid.") Second, I have always maintained that this bear market will last 6-12 years. (To remind folks, that's a wide range, but it depends on what we are correcting. If we are correcting the run out of 1982, then it will be on the shorter end of the range. If we are correcting the run out of 1974, which I favour, then it will be longer. [If we are correcting the entire 5 wave rise out of 1932, then... well, frankly, I really would rather not talk about it. -ng]) Here's my problem. The credit bubble is under direct attack now. We are done with the glancing blows and are pricking the bubble. If it bursts, then I fear that this could spiral. I would be much happier finding a middle road that would take more time. I am very uncomfortable as a trader seeing a straight-line decline.