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To: bcrafty who wrote (46511)	7/19/2002 9:09:46 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Thanks bcrafty. Note that 40% see it as being lower than 7000. I am short that crowd, for this leg I mean.

To: bcrafty who wrote (46511)	7/21/2002 9:51:08 AM
From: rolatzi	Respond to of 209892

My own targets on the indexes are five year lows with a one year low in long term interest rates. At this point many of the indexes have reached five year lows. 5 yr Fri. Intra 5 yr Index Close Low Close DJ 8019 6900 7400 NDX 965 937 954 COMP 1319* 1492 1357 SP500 848* 912 915 *5 year lows For long term interest rate we are currently at 4.5% and need to get to 4.3% to hit a one year low. I am using 10yr rates since the 1930s were totally manipulated. These numbers were chosen because during the depression of the thirty's so long as there wasn't run away deflation, the market bottomed at 5 year lows if interest rates hadn't ticked up. This all suggests that we are at an interrim bottom. If we go down much more interest rates on 10 year Treasuries are likely to see a rush of money as people seek its security. On Monday, I would be looking for a spike in the VIX to 50 or so. I think it was Sy Harding who found that spikes of the VIX beyond the Bollinger Bands indicated short term highs and lows. However, since the beginning of June the VIX has been following along the upper Bollinger Band with spikes over it but the market has continued to decline. The peak in VIX following 9/11 was 57 and change. I don't know that we will have fear like that but if we reach that same level of VIX it should be good enough for this leg down. I may not buy into it, as I will be on vacation for much of August. If gold spikes on Monday, I may pare back my mining holdings because they have been hurt by the over all weakness in stocks, probably from forced liquidation. Good luck to all, Ro