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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (96465)	7/20/2002 10:00:52 AM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Heed the billings not bookings..former up 12.5 % since Jan but bookings almost doubled. Obviously you have an expanding book to bill ratio. Is that healthy? When the denominator that deals with actual monies transacted increases ever so much more slowly than the numerator?

To: ChrisJP who wrote (96465)	7/20/2002 10:21:27 AM
From: DebtBomb	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Bookings are rising slowly, very slowly, and if prices are chopped up enough, then profits will drop, it's that simple for me, that's why you see some stuff like INTC hit new lows, IMO. That, and because their P/E's are so high, the profit growth ain't there. So can they sell more units and make less money?? Yeppo, it's happening, IMO. The SOX hit new lows too. The other thing is, the market is a discounting mechanism, and it doesn't like what it sees looking forward, IMO. The market is smart, it's a great leading indicator of the economy. So, you decide, is business really improving if profits are dropping??

To: ChrisJP who wrote (96465)	7/20/2002 5:54:10 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

The latest month's SEMI BtB shows a small improvement in a 3-month moving average. All that means is that the new June numbers were a little better than the March numbers, which dropped out of the average. There is very strong evidence from earnings reports/guidance, trade publications and other sources that the temporary order surge in 2Q has now burned out and business is turning back down. The BtB numbers are consistent with this, in that the 3-month trailing average is flattening out already.