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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (16100)	7/20/2002 11:43:58 AM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

"Understand this. For the vast majority of investors, who convinced themselves that the "new economy" was the ONLY game in town, the act of buying Gold would be an admission that they were absolutely dead WRONG." This is so true. Talk to your "long-term" investor friends. Even still, you can visibly see their nose go up when gold is mentioned as a possible investment. Portfolios rose so easy in the 1990's, that most still cannot comprehend that this is indeed a long-term bear market. Almost 100% of today's stock market participants have NEVER experienced a bear market. Why, most analysts have not experienced one either. Their confusion will become anguish as they keep telling people to never sell and keep doing the "bottom chant." The 1990's became a trader's market, and "long-term" came to mean about 3 months. Gold is still viewed like baseball cards by the typical person. Never mind that baseball cards did not exist thousands of years ago. I'm afraid this may be a perpetual slide to America's demise economically with so many forces at work to prevent a quick washout so things could be rebuilt. It seems so simple, yet most miss it. PE's need to return near 10 on the S&P. It's not over till it's over. I remain, SOROS

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (16100)	7/20/2002 12:41:00 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Wayne, <<For the vast majority of investors, who convinced themselves that the "new economy" was the ONLY game in town, the act of buying Gold would be an admission that they were absolutely dead WRONG.>> Last night I was listening to the CNET radio show "Online Tonight" and its host David Lawrence when he asked the question "Why isn't anyone actually saying that the stock market is crashing?". Since it's a call-in show, I called and told him that the reason was that the audience didn't want to hear it and that they would rather be reassured that everything would be okay. He didn't believe this, so I continued about how anyone who is interested in presenting other possibilities, like Robert Shiller, is rarely allowed access to the media and that historically the big picture for the stock market is more or less 17 years up and 17 years down and named the dates since 1929 for him. At this he said "Now you're really getting me depressed." and "I don't believe in cycles." I told him that all his protestations were making my point that the public really doesn't want to hear that the stock market is crashing. At that point it was time for a commercial and he was spared further aggravation by me. <g> Regards, vt P.S. Thanks for posting that bit from the Privateer.