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To: reaper who wrote (46543)	7/20/2002 10:48:37 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 209892

Yes, the risk is high, nobody is arguing that. How long have I/we been saying that "the window is open"? 4 or 5 weeks? You ain't heard me call a durable low and I am not saying this is one. I am betting it is not. However, I am also betting that this is not going down in a straight line. We agree that the credit bubble is everything. The mechanics of bubble bursting seem clear enough -- it does not deflate, it bursts and leaves you but a wet spot. Still, when the tech bubble exploded, there were many a fine rally on the way down that schooled the complacent bear. I expect the bursting of the credit bubble to be no different. The basic premise of Elliott (and I am not making an Elliott argument per se here) is that emotion and price moves in waves that hve distinct characteristics. Even if you think Elliott is garbage, there is no denying that the first wave in a move is just the opening salvo and is not the point of recognition. There is always, as a minimum, a countertrend move followed by a more forceful 3rd move. So it will be with the credit bubble. Let's assume that the credit bubble is now bursting. This is the first move and it will be met by all of the forces that can be brought to bear by big business and government, as well as the considerable capacity for denial from the general public. There will be a countertrend move and I do not want to be short when it catches. I maintain that we are close in time to a sharp rally. Price, well, that's another matter. Conceptually, I will consider the next up move to be "wave 2 of the credit bubble bursting". It is the move after that that I fear. This is all most fascinating and we have to work together here to stay objective, at this point more than any other.

To: reaper who wrote (46543)	7/22/2002 8:26:57 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

i'm getting less and less comfortable profiting from the misery of others reaper, as usual, that was a good, thoughtful post. I really don't think you are profiting from the misery of others. Yes, people are suffering AS you are profiting, but you really aren't profiting FROM their suffering. The people who are long now have been deluded by others that they should invest for the long-term. But that's not your fault. And certainly the people who profited when your shorts were running against you had no compunction about what they were doing. ork