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Strategies & Market Trends : Take the Money and Run -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (9742)	7/20/2002 3:25:23 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17639

I do think that a bottom is near. But not the bottom. Near would be defined as "time", not "price level". I think that we are going to have a real capitulation day that drops the Naz at least 100-150pts and the Dow 800pts. Is that possible with the trading curbs? I don't think so. We saw it in 1987 (well some people who were actually investing did)- in the 80s the ^VIX could hit 100. But not now. These curbs are at least partially responsible for the slow bleed capitulation we're seeing vs. that extreme down day everyone is waiting for, jmo. Also - But not the* bottom.* You may be correct, but as far as mass read on this- every time there is a catastrophic event be it natural disaster or whatever, this is the comment every pundit echoes. Jim Cramer said it last night. Yes a bottom is coming but not the bottom. Reminds me of the 1987 Loma Prieta earthquake here- the day it happened the national news said it was A big one but not the big one. L

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (9742)	7/21/2002 8:40:30 AM
From: Alan Smithee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17639

I do think that a* bottom is near. But not the bottom.* What is likely to happen is yet another shearing of the sheep. All these news reports about fear, and wanton selling are precursors to the news reports that the bottom has been put in place. That will be viewed by the retail investors as a sign that the true bottom is in and at some some point, many will think it's safe to reenter the water. IMO, that's what will precede the true capitulation that you expect.