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To: AllansAlias who wrote (46554)	7/20/2002 4:58:56 PM
From: David Zgodzinski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

a rally off some kind of a bottom will happen eventually and with the acceleration of bearishness, the coming week seems like a reasonable time to start. full moon and all. but i wonder what they're going to use for fuel. The rally off the September lows was fueled by yet another interest rate drop. The Fed has done this sort of turnaround on a number of occasions. I wonder what they're going use to turn it around this time. Last week a friend told me that his mother in the Czech Republic was telling him that the dollar is going to crap out. It's tempting to think that might be a bottom indicator, but currency trends are hard to change once they get started. So I don't know what the silver bullet will be. I know in purely technical terms it doesn't matter, but I think they're going to have to use something. I don't think just lower prices will be enough for more than a short term bounce. And if they do turn it around, which seems likely, and as you say there's another downleg after this rally fades, assuming the disease is still present even though the patient felt better for awhile, then they will be facing some serious problems the next time.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (46554)	7/21/2002 1:57:44 AM
From: jimcav	Respond to of 209892

AA, I follow what you're saying about time, not price...and I think we all can see the price areas you are looking at. I'm just a bit curious if you have a count from the Dec. NDX highs (the 5 of A from the all-time high I believe)... I'm having trouble getting a picture which I like.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (46554)	7/21/2002 10:06:29 AM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allen, I wonder if any rally we have will be capped by strong resistance at the Sept 2001 and Oct 98 lows, which were strong support and now will be strong resistance. Also, with the SP500 now having broken the neckline of its 5 year HS pattern, the charts would call for it to trace out a measured move down before any attempt to break back to or above the neckline. A strong rally from this point would seem unlikely from this point of view. I read some comments by James Sinclair this weekend at financialsense.com, and he described the long term nasdaq chart as a 'bankruptcy Head and shoulders', which I have not heard before, but I guess it means that the measured move would go below zero. The neckline of this pattern has also been broken, and would seem to preclude a strong rally above the neckline at the sept lows. I have a large short position, and am wondering when to cover, and perhaps when to go long for a short term bounce, but the bounce may be too weak and short to be worth the risk on the long side. If the SP500 head and shoulders plays out this fall, it will drop to 500 or so. Maybe I should just hold my shorts? Robin

To: AllansAlias who wrote (46554)	7/21/2002 9:59:38 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

more complacency from the Boston Globe today.... the article on the market was only important enough to make it to page A12 (this being Boston and all we had to have page 1 stories on the Catholic church and Ted Williams' son). My favorite line... <"This is free fall. This is panic selling," said James Weiss, chief investment officer for stocks at State Street Research & Management.>> boy is Mr. Weiss going to be surprised when ACTUAL panic really does hit. must be another farking boomer, who wouldn't know tough times unless he had to come from Wellesly to watch his son's little league team play in Lower Roxbury against my surly bunch of Dominicans. Mr. Weiss goes on to say that "This is very typical of the late stages of a mega-bear market." You will all excuse me if I take the opposite side of Mr. Weiss' trade. other key quotes from the article "The fact that everyone is getting more negative is somewhat of a positive." Mike Comerford, senior traded at Adams Harkness & Hill another of Mr. Comerford's pearls of wisdom "At the height of negativity is usually your best opportunity to go up." (that sort of genius is what landed him that plum job at Adams Harkness <g>) "....with a pained awareness that this decline has turned as irrational as the giddy ascent that preceded it" "There is growing evidence that the most frightened investors have reached the so-called capitulation stage..." "This process can be agonizing, analysts said, but its indicative that the bottom is near..." OK, so we have several calls for a bottom, references to panic and capitulation, and definitions of the market as irrational. NOWHERE in the article is there even the slightest suggestion that stocks might go down further, or even a suggestion that they'll go sideways for a long time. the bottom is in. they're ringing a bell, right here in my local newspaper. Cheers