Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Taylor who wrote (83316)	7/20/2002 5:43:11 PM
From: Tom Pulley	Respond to of 99985

David, re I didn't sweat, curse, mumble or use a fancy model....Look for 4,000 on the Dow, 600 on the Nasdaq and 400 on the S&P 500 by the end of 2003. You are doing a bit better than me this year so far and you may be right, but my bet is that if stay short until 4000 on the dow, etc; you may have some sweating, cursing and mumbling ahead of you (g). I don't see the sequence of events lining up that will cause a fall to that level. On the other hand, it is not so hard to paint a picture that we will see some good earnings growth ahead next year as the economy continues to recover with interest rates likely to remain low as inflation is under control. Combine that with fed model valuations that I'm told show the market to be 30% undervalued, and its hard to see a 50% decline from here. Of course, time will tell. If I'm wrong (and it won't be the first time), my model is very unlikely to lose more than 10% on this trade. On the other hand, the potential on an upmove is in the 30% range. Tom