Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (2773)	7/20/2002 11:55:11 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

US stock message: 1- confidence, fraud 2-Asian bank failures the distracting immediately obvious message concerns investor eroded confidence, widespread corporate accounting fraud, liberal abuse of stock options, and all manner of exposed horseshit to line executive pockets BUT ANOTHER FAR MORE DANGEROUS SIGNAL CAN BE INFERRED this one is far more difficult to read clearly it stems from the declining USdollar I ask: what besides falling US stocks will be the fallout within the world banking system? can the world financial reserve currency drop 10% without any observable effect? I say no, not a chance, not even a slight chance so we will see some ugly events unfold but what will it be? what is the big decline in stocks forewarning? the stock market never tells you exactly what is going on it tells you of something brewing, a threat upcoming so what will it be? bear in mind that 75% of world bank reserves are now in the form of USTBonds MY GUESS, MY INFERENCE, MY CONCLUSION: the entire Asian PacRim banking systems will default in stages 2-3 South American national defaults will follow Argentina but the real story will be Asia South America will be a lesser event, compounding pain Brazil is doomed to default, only a matter of time that will be 3x larger than Argentina's recent default China is on the edge of bank failure Japan has been "Walking Dead" for two years in bank failures (they have already been rendered DEAD, just propped now) I have read that 200 million Chinese farmers are not unemployed with 10's of millions of unemployed in the cities 4 Chinese banks service 75% of the nation's banking 1000's of corporate bankruptcies are happening DEFLATION IS KILLING CHINA but the official state reports are "all is well" (dont want to encourage discontinued foreign capital) I THINK WE ARE SOON TO SEE A SECOND ASIAN MELTDOWN IT WILL BE FAR MORE DANGEROUS AND DEVASTATING THAN 1997 IT WILL INVOLVE CHINA AND JAPAN, BOTH BUT IT WILL TAKE DOWN THE ENTIRE ASIAN PACRIM it will also involve Taiwan, Korea, HongKong also and the little Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philipines the little guys never recovered since 1997 this whole Asian region has been weak since 2000 but now add a 5-10% decline in their USTBonds their banks are in trouble outside the TBond issue now add reduced capex purchases from USA now add time from two years of deterioration ASIA BANKS WILL DEFAULT, FAIL, AND LEAD TO TOTAL CHAOS it will severely affect US financial markets first, because 1000's of joint American projects underway in China second, because Asian banks hold over $500 billion in USTBonds third, Asian profit margins just shrank 5-10% on both finished products and components shipped to US markets the stock market moron pundits have been dispensing their WISDOM about US multi-nationals benefitting from a declining dollar but with failed multi-$M projects in China, these same US firms will instead take serious hits where is the rise in Gillette, GenlElectric, Caterpillar, etc? instead, we saw CAT issue a harsh warning coming this autumn, winter, spring get a solid athletic supporter buy gold, which will skyrocket / jim