Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (14888)	7/21/2002 4:36:49 PM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 82412

Here is a wonderful set of charts which show not only by how much the market is "overpriced" but also why. It's clear there wasn't much of a bull market in earnings at all. What we have just witnessed is the biggest accounting fraud in history. In fact, what we see is that, at its peak in 2000, the market was 50% more overvalued than it was at its peak in 1929 and, as we also now know, the 2000 earnings were fictitious. decisionpoint.com Indeed, what the charts also show us is that, even if the S&P500 falls to half its present value ie around 450, it will still not be particularly cheap.

To: sea_urchin who wrote (14888)	7/21/2002 4:39:46 PM
From: Alan Whirlwind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82412

"Are the earnings last year's, this year's or next year's --- or just a thumbsuck?" I suspect they could be in the ballpark since 3% growth is being predicted for the year 2002. Needless to say divers heads need to roll in these present scandals before any bottom can be had. Your figure S&P 36.7. is very high and likely 20 is needed before the ringing out is over. "Fact is, I don't think anyone can believe anything any more." That's why lower lows are being predicted even by Kudlow. "What about Israel/Palestinians, Syria, Iran, N.Korea etc, etc and who says Afghanistan is over? In my opinion, the global uncertainty and the fear of the US being involved in various wars is only just beginning." And the Anti-Christ for that matter. Anything could be happening. A United Europe is more powerful than a United States. "I can see the present drift still lasting quite a few more months." Gold won't peak before next summer IMHO.