To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (121890 ) 8/22/2002 1:05:37 PM From: Wyätt Gwyön Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472 i became quite bullish on the market during the week of July 22-26. all my favorite contrarian indicators were flashing buy signals. so i closed all my shorts and increased my equity allocation a goodly amount. due to the extremely positive market action since then, i think it is time for me to reel in some longs and start shorting again. i should note that i am no TA expert, and although i apparently hit the nail on the head in going long that week, it was more a matter of luck and whim than any systematic success. of course, imo even TA experts are only "right" if and when they are lucky, except they are deluded into thinking of it as skill, whereas i recognize it is luck. such is to say, my cutting back at this stage is just more whim on my part, and whether it will prove to have been lucky in hindsight is for the gods to say, not me. still, for those who keep track of these things... my post from July 23, when i went "clown long" one day before the market bottom: mucho loves the negativity. buy when the bubbleonians start puking in the streets...i am very pleased by the negativity on my favorite contrary indicator, the G&K thread and its derivatives... #reply-17783764 my post from July 21, when i started preparing to shift up my equity allocation:in spite of all the negativity (to which i am of course an enthusiastic contributor :), i am going to start increasing my equity allocation this week. you gotta love this negativity, although i suspect it will get much worse before it's all over (though of course i could be wrong, which is why i am starting to add now...) i will be purchasing a variety of index funds. right now i am 75% bonds/cash, 27.5% long, and 2.5% short (25% net long). however, because i am such a bull on the market, i am going to be shifting 5% of cash into equities, spread amongst a dozen or so index funds and ETFs. this will take me to 70% bonds/cash and 30% equities. fwiw... #reply-17770617 fwiw, i made some subsequent additions after that July 23 trade date, which, combined with the great market action since then, have now pushed my equity allocation northward to an amazingly clownish 40%+. i will start chopping this back toward 30%, which imo is more personally appropriate given the poor outlook i see for equities....