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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (96727)	7/22/2002 12:19:38 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

how would you respond to a thesis that suggests that it will take a much shorter interval for the losers to go out of business and the winners to grow earnings to validate current valuations? I'll take a stab at that one, Cary. Dow theorists posit that sixteen years would be the expected time for the DJIA to surpass previous highs, not any particular stock. As I may have noted in an earlier post, many individual stocks, both technology and non-technology companies soared to all time highs in 1979-80 (while still in the midst of the last "secular bear market"), up 500-1000% from their 1974 washout lows. The averages do not represent all stocks. So your thesis is correct. A 5 minute glance at my SRC Bluebook Chartbook from 1971-1982 of "1,105 leading companies" tells the story quite cogently. E-mail me privately if you want to take a look at it. Sam