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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37740)	7/22/2002 3:34:59 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69827

[madtrader] Fri Jul 19, 5:25pm PDT August 14th I am tired of hearing August 14th as the day that somehow all this selling will stop. Because that is supposed to be the day that CEOs have to sign on the dotted line to affirm their earnings reports. I am afraid I don't buy this. If someone wants to cheat,lie and steal, this isn't going to be a deterrent. I am not smart enough to know where and when exactly the end is, I do know that bottoms are set when sound bases are built. We aren't even putting in a pause in this selling yet, so August 14th is a date that is just as silly as any other dates. none. [madtrader] Fri Jul 19, 4:34pm PDT Black Monday I got an email from someone who asked about a possible "Black Monday". I am assuming he is referring to the crash of 1987. Unfortunately, I wasn't in the market at the time. I was a freshman in college, and the following week witnessed someone on campus asking Bill Gates what he thought that he was no-longer a billionaire, but a mere millionaire at the time. I don't know about the parallel between this tape and 1987. The only significant similarity is the lousy Friday action, and a very weak US Dollar, and an administration that was perceived clueless about the markets (James Baker said a weak Dollar was good at the time). Which is enough to make plenty of people worried. However, there is a significant departure, that is, despite the weak Dollar, we don't have a bond market crash on our hands here. 1987 was a system wide melt down, we don't have such a parallel. Although I did suggest we were going to have a crash exactly a month ago, now that we are in the middle of it, I am afraid I don't have any better idea where exactly the end level is. I have suggested a level of 6475, which is the 162% retracement of the range between last September low to this year's high. I went back further and used 1987 low and the all-time-high in DJI as reference, 6683 would be the 50% retracement level. So somewhere between 6675-6683 would seem a fair level to me.