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To: John Madarasz who wrote (46690)	7/22/2002 11:18:48 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Same ole trick here for the wiggle traders: these repeated trips back to the lows or very marginal lows without falling thru hard, builds up energy for a nice pop. Getting some fresh selling here now as they whack JPM yet again, so we'll see if we can break through to the down side.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (46690)	7/22/2002 11:28:22 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Dow probing under the big channel that goes all the way back to the top -- the May top. I think we just set a multi-month record there for NYSE -tick. Anytime you get something falling out of a decently sloped down channel, that's acceleration.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (46690)	7/22/2002 11:51:12 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

>>lots and lots of very valid cycle work puts this bear into 2003-2005 for the final lows<< Since the advent of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the four-year cycle low has held for the next four years in every four-year cycle but one: 1930. If we break this year's lows anytime in the next three years or so, the only precedent would be 1930. Since the four-year cycle follows when administrations try to goose the economy, a break of that pattern would seem to confirm a liquidity trap.