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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (52285)	7/22/2002 6:17:34 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, Pervasiveness is only one issue which attracts me to Arm. The other is semiconductor complexity. As processors and ASICS/ASSPs move to 130nm process and below the design process goes through a 'complexity barrier'. The entire design process needs to change at that point. This is causing a structural shift in the semiconductor business. Anything which can reduce the time and cost of IC design will be very valuable. This is where I see Arm playing a big role. They standardize the process and pre-validate a certain percentage of the IC area. With the broad adoption of the Amba bus, Arm now controls the embedded processor core and the interconnect technology. Arm is gaining architectural control of the ASIC / ASSP process AND product. It looks to me that Arm is developing a Microsoft type lock on the ASIC business. There are a few reasons I see risk in Qualcomm. The primary reason is the financial stability of the industry. The second reason is that I see WiFi technology as diluting the 3G value proposition. I agree that 3G and Qualcomm may do well internationally while flailing a bit in North America. However, I do not have anywhere enough background in the dynamics of these global markets. It is not worth my time to learn since I don't think it is knowledge that can easily be re-applied to other technologies. In the end, there are plenty of opportunties in markets that I understand and where I have confidence in my knowledge. I will spend my time on those and risk losing the 3G upside. Paul