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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (1942)	7/22/2002 7:43:29 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 10157

Velo, I'm keeping an open mind about that 500 COMP, especially if the targets for the H&S on the SPX and Dow are in play. My crash value numbers suggest 800 COMP (based upon the 1990 low) should be a pretty decent level of support, as should be 5500-6300 Dow. However, the Dow numbers are from the 1987 crash. If you use a 7.5% Annual return and the 1982 low as a base, the 3800 Dow comes into play, as does around 490 SPX. The 1987 base for crash value yields around 720 SPX, which seems a bit high right now. That may indicate I need to use the 1982 low as the base for crash value now. That low at 7.5% yields around 750 COMP right now, so that would seem to be a sweet spot if you use the 1982 base low and a 7.5% annual return (I've modified that from 8.5% due to the accounting stuff and the dividend cuts).