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To: GrillSgt who wrote (182186)	7/22/2002 7:36:55 PM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 436258

Dr. Stool is great! Here are a couple of posts a little more optimistic for the near term... [1]http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=93686#post93686 [2]Since stock index cycles peaked in March 2002, you have heard (or read) us speak about the next important convergence of cycles just after mid-July. For months, we have tried to focus your attention on July 22nd - when a sharp decline was projected to culminate and give way to a subsequent strong rebound. Well, July 22nd is here... and stock indices have simultaneously hit - or are about to hit - some of their most important support levels as this 4-month cycle reaches fruition. The downward pressure on the market could begin to dissipate as early as tomorrow (July 23rd) as a new cycle takes hold. The following is an excerpt from our July 20, 2002 Weekly Re-Lay. We hope it helps you understand why we were so bearish leading into this date and why our outlook is now shifting dramatically... ""Stock Indices again fulfilled the potential for another spike low leading into critical, intermediate cycles on July 22nd. The Nasdaq 100 remained above its low while the DJIA & SPU dropped to some important long-term levels of support. A low and reversal higher is still expected to take place on July 22nd... The DJIA has spiked below its September 21st, 2001 low… on the precise day that leads into the strongest synergy of cycle lows, Cycle Progression downside projections, anniversaries and related (wave, etc.) turning point projections… on July 22, 2002. At the same time, the S+P is testing the 50% retracement level of its entire (previous) 18-year bull market. This market rallied from 101.25 in August 1982 to 1574.0 in March 2000. It is now close to testing 837.6 - the 50% retracement level of that entire advance. This, too, is occurring while the S+P approaches the most likely day for a critical low… on July 22, 2002. And, while this is taking place, the Nasdaq 100 is holding above the low that it set during its strongest synergy of daily cycles: on July 11, 2002… but is poised to retest this critical low… on July 22, 2002. As explained last week, the Nasdaq 100 is hovering at the point where it has lost 78.6% of its value (.786 = 2nd Degree Golden Ratio) since the major cycle high in March 2000. It was expected to remain above its July 11th lows while the DJIA & SPU dropped to progressively lower lows leading into July 22nd. As a result, 1-3 month investors should be buying this latest drop. (Futures traders, etc. should not be doing any buying prior to July 22nd!… although selling is no longer recommended either.) The DJIA has major, long-term support at 7400 (1998 low) - 7556 (.382 retracement of the 1982--2000 advance), which is now within striking distance. This, combined with S+P support, reinforces this longer-term viewpoint and now sets the stage for potential short-term and/or intermediate term reversals higher in the coming weeks (whether or not the DJIA makes it this low). Consistent with the weekly trend pattern, and as conveyed on July 6th, each rally until the week of July 22nd - 26th was projected to be "met with determined selling". This is what has happened to date. Now that we are entering the week in question - and moving through the fateful July 22nd date - these expectations will change dramatically and the chance for a sustained rebound will increase substantially. Among other things, July 22nd represents the culmination of a unique series/web of 19-related Cycle Progressions. If the SPU sets a low on July 22nd, that low will complete a 152-day (8x19) low-low-low, a 76-day (4x19) low-low-low, a 38-day (2x19) low-low-low and a 19-day low-low-low. Many other timing projections corroborate the importance of July 22nd. The NQU continues to hold above its July 11th low while the DJIA & SPU drop to progressively lower lows. This potential scenario (now a reality) was described in recent weeks as the ideal pattern leading into a July 22nd low. The NQU is the market expected to lead the first stage of a post-July 22nd advance and its action has strongly reinforced this anticipation. The coming week provides the potential for this phase, coinciding with wave timing in the DJIA & SPU. In addition to the web of 19-related Cycle Progression projections focused on July 22nd, the early month high on July 8th (high close on July 5th and spike high/reversal lower on July 8th) set the stage for successive 14-day declines culminating on July 22nd (6/19 high - 7/03 low & 7/08 high - 7/22 low)… which followed a 28-day drop from 5/17 - 6/14. If the NQU can spike below 959 (a brief drop below 948.5 is also a strong possibility considering the daily trend pattern) and close back above 967 (ideally above 998), it will be the next sign that an intermediate low is slowly evolving. Trading Strategies: Short-term & intermediate traders can xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx."" (Specific trading strategies reserved for current subscribers only.) [End excerpt from 7/20/02 Weekly Re-Lay] INSIIDE Track Trading // www.insiidetrack.com 630-637-0967 -- vc 630-585-5701 -- fx Publisher of: Weekly Re-Lay fax/e-mail service (w/intra-week Alerts) INSIIDE Track monthly newsletter, Special Reports & intra-month hotline Eric Hadik's Tech Tip Reference Library