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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14897)	7/23/2002 2:21:50 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

Paul: Started C @28.01 Positives: Global franchise with size related competitive advantages selling <8 PE [03 3.67 est EPS]; Concerns: Hit to reputational capital from Grubman, Enron, Litigation from same, derivitives and complexity make it difficult to analyze and value, debt magnifies asset hits. Liquidity & uncertainty make it source of cash for fund redemptions. Prior to 6/20, C hadn't recently dipped below 40 other than 911, and it has Strong buys from most analysts with targets in the 60-70 range, so if we look at 40 [<11X 03 est] reasonable value, then this sell off at 28 represents over $60Billion in market value wipe-out. I can't quantify the value or the risks, but that seems a bit excessive. Unfortunately there's a long list of stuff I've thought that about and been proven very early or very wrong.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14897)	7/23/2002 2:29:59 PM
From: geoffrey Wren	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78523

Anyone looking at EP still? Some discussion of it before when it was at 25 or so (after a big drop). Now it's at 10. But looking at WMB and DYN, you have to wonder if it too won't go to 2-3. I cannot believe that all these energy stocks will go like ENRON down the tube, but that seems to be the market perspective now. EP seems to have a better balance sheet than the others, but all are under a cloud due to California's lawsuits and all the round-trip swap trades that were done for deceptive reasons. S&P came out today with a justification for not downgrading EP debt rating. Anyone thinking of nibbling on these risky stocks?