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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (15424)	7/22/2002 9:29:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

jim, you're right. Many of today's indicators were not developed then. I suppose if someone could get '70s data, the new indicators could be applied to it. I kept CNBC on without sound today and they flashed a table showing the duration of maybe 5 past bear market bottoms. The average was 4 or 5 months. I don't know how a bear market bottom is defined. G.

To: jim_p who wrote (15424)	7/23/2002 2:47:55 AM
From: upanddown	Respond to of 23153

My big concern is what is happening today is exactly what happened in the 70's and this is a lot larger bubble. I don't know, Jim. The Nifty Fifty created a hell of a bubble in 1973 and accompanied by all the problems of the day (oil embargo, stagflation, Watergate, etc.) the market went off on the nastiest post-WWII bear market that lasted about 19 months and lopped 48% off the S&P 500. This one is at 28 months and counting and, thru today, has trimmed 46.3% off the S&P 500. The current duration is only exceeded since WWII by the 1946-48 bear that lasted 36 months. I think we are close here and if this ain't capitulation, I'm gonna hate seeing the real thing. The 73-74 took at least a quarter to consolidate at the bottom but eventually led to 40%+ gains in the ensuing 12 months. John