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To: 1podstock who wrote (1949)	7/23/2002 1:30:09 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 10157

Cant they just reverse split them right now? Isn't the DOW price weighted in some stupid manner? Bow would that wipe out a lot of puts. M

To: 1podstock who wrote (1949)	7/23/2002 1:31:12 AM
From: velociraptor_	Respond to of 10157

Yes, but it all has to be put into perspective. There are only 3 other bear markets of recent times that we can really compare this to.... 1) 1929-1933 2) 1937 -1943 3) 1966 - 1974 The 1st one is of a pretty large degree considering that over 90% of assets were wiped out. The next two are of similar but smaller degree and in fact on a long term chart, represent waves 2 and 4 of a long 5 wave bull market that began in 1933 and ended in 2000. That means that our current bear market is of one larger degree than the last 2 bear markets. If the 1929 bear market was a wave 2 of a larger cycle then we could be in wave 4 of this very large cycle, making this a Supercycle bear market and the losses should be heavy but not extreme as the 1929 bear was a sharp so this one should be a flat. Considering that the 1933 low was about 100, we have about 11,650 points of gains to correct and we will likely correct a fibonacci ratio of this amount. However, there was a period around 1850 that also had a large degree correction. If this period was the wave 2 and the 1929 bear was wave 4, that means we are now in a Grand SuperCycle bear market and that means anything goes including a move on the DOW back to below 1000 at this point and the bear will last for years. God help us if this is where we are, but no doubt we are nevertheless in a bear market of at least the same degree as the 1929 bear. With the DOW move below the neckline on the monthly chart, the pattern has been confirmed.