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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (97362)	7/23/2002 9:37:18 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 99280

Mish, check out this historical article on RealRates vs gold zealllc.com very solid review of adjusted short rates versus gold performance covers the all-important 1970 decade where gold rose 25-fold we have alarmingly similar fundamentals now with that decade back then the Real Rate of Return on 3moTBills was near/below zero, just like now, and remained there for some time, just like now the part I prefer to focus on the most is that in 1970-71 the London Gold Pool was actively working with the USFed to cap the gold price at $32/oz nobody in mainstream US-Europe thought that gold would break out of their grip it went to $800/oz now I think gold is being capped at $320/oz I believe it will go a lot higher in the next few years the Fed must reflate to combat deflation when they finally prevail, gold will likely be much higher I am 100% into golds, but my approach is different from most unlike Zeev and some of you guys, I dont do well trading in/out it is just too tough with emotions, obligations from office I think a longterm gold stock accumulation will yield a 20-40x profit by 2005-07 then I retire and play with sandcastles on beaches, read novels, and pursue women much younger than the age indicated on my driver's license unlike in 2000, when I did the same with QCOM and stayed in only to get my nuts separated from my loins here is another link by Saville which demonstrates a strong parallel between 1973 and 2002 gold stock price action apparently the June-July period here mirrors 1973 after a strong initial leg up I know Sylvester poopoos gold stocks now but this is very very early talk of "gold bubbles" now is simply looney when gold surpasses $340-350/oz, the longterm downtrend is broken that is the day I eagerly await until then we go thru the whipsaw on a weekly basis kitco.com an excerpt: We've been using the gold stock rally of the early-1970s as a rough guide as to what could reasonably be expected from the current bull market (the one that began in November of 2000). As we've shown in the past, the path that has been followed by gold stocks since November of 2000 is remarkably similar to the path that was followed by gold stocks during the rally that commenced in January of 1972. Furthermore, the correction in the gold market that began in late-May of this year lines up quite closely with the 3-month correction that began at the beginning of May in 1973. good luck as for best time to enter, last autumn and for re-entry, sometime between two weeks ago and two weeks from now / jim