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To: Lucretius who wrote (182304)	7/23/2002 8:22:14 AM
From: sammaster	Respond to of 436258

"Scenario 3: run-for-the-hills risk. The market crumbles by another 40% or more. Probability 5%. Requires that the economy drops into a much more painful recession on the second dip and that interest rates begin to climb -- either because the Federal Reserve makes a policy mistake or because factors ranging from a weak dollar to growing federal deficits send interest rates up with or without Fed action. This scenario also assumes that growing cynicism at ineffective reform leads significant numbers of investors to abandon the stock market for a decade." moneycentral.msn.com above quote from jubak on msn.... doesnt this equate to the most likely scenario considering what is going on?