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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stock Farmer who wrote (21568)7/23/2002 4:50:49 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
John, it's quite crazy, yes. <Let me get this straight... you are holding on to flimsy stuff while all around you the "more robust" stuff is tanking? >

I won't try to describe the philosophical foundations because I know it will end up in some abstract stuff where I am wandering in a fog of ignorance and confusion.

But I have a little knowledge. So, of course, it makes the times interesting, at least viewed from where I seem to be viewing. That, as the curse goes, does not make for a Zen-like state of peace, light and harmony with a universe full of ommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Neither does hitting a golf ball, which even Eldrick showed with his Woodsman like skills and irons, can leave one subject to the vicissitudes of life and mind, neither of which are easily tamed. To see the great and amazing Tiger whacking the earth in fury, cursing and swearing and glowering like any rabid humanoid trying to make sense of life was a lesson for us all. Nobody has been better tuned, with more natural talent, to create perfection.

So, we live in interesting times, and I have learned that there is some Calvin in me [as in Calvin and Hobbes] and I enjoy a high speed zoom zoom zoom teetering on the edge of control, which does sometimes end in a splat [Globalstar for one].

Anyway, the reasons are long and involved for why I'm holding such a dodgy financial instrument while real estate, patents, skilled people are for sale, wrapped up in legal entities held together by trust and the desire to collectively battle against the vicissitudes of life and make a hole in one. Those companies have got 6 billion people wanting to live and also make headway and get a hole in one, 18 times in a row. Those 6 billion have to try. They have no choice. Evolution and the devil take the hindmost.

Evolution has been a cruel filter, grinding exceeding fine and the process has not stopped. It is more rapid now than ever, because there are more people alive than ever and the mutation rate of human genomes is therefore greater than ever, by an order of magnitude! See Note 1.

So those 6 billion and the supplying companies are a very large and very powerful driving force. Unstoppable! Anything tries to stop them, had better watch out. They might be all saying ommmmmmmmmmm, but when something challenges their direct existence and basic needs, they'll drag out every bit of DNA and gangsterism and collective determination built up over eons of selecting for that drive to survive. They need, of course, ahem, to communicate to survive. I would like to now make a plug for, ahem, yes, you guessed it phragmented photons. On sale here - see the crowds... Message 17772698

So, why on earth would I hold greenbacks when that mania is building? Greenbacks have been going fine, but I can see the swing is already going awry and it's only the backswing. I don't think the Greenback will get a hole in one. What is swinging it is simply lacking the natural talent, skill and survival characteristics. But, I can ride it for a while, because the alternatives are worse right now - the alternatives are being whacked into the earth, with cursing, fury and glowering murder.

The Greenback is still in a state of ommmmmmmm, more or less.

That explains only the basics, sort of, then I enter the realm of why for me. By that I mean, what the heck makes me tick. Which really gets tricky. Suffice to say that that's what I'm doing. So far, so good.

Yes, I've entered the realm of ephemeral, risky, flimsy, will o' the wisp hope; an Alice in Wonderland world of "In God We Trust" - "In Uncle Al We Trust" - "In J6J We Trust" - "In GeoergeW We Trust". Why on earth would any sensible person put their trust in some flimsy bit of paper or pixel of promise issued by that lot? Meanwhile, elsewhere, real, robust stuff is whacking around, trying to regain composure.

The human zoo is in uproar. We are all up on our hind legs, shouting and cursing, threatening death, stealing, cooking books, taxing, printing, promising and there is not much ommmmmmmmmm going on. We are looking around for escape or somewhere to hide our nausages [Jay's word for store of value].

Well, that's the short version. I know it doesn't adequately explain me holding dollars, but I did explain the process I expected a few years ago and that I thought this would come to pass and so it has. I don't know if the search function would find it. There has been [is being] a lot more crunching that I thought [especially in the telecosmic world - but that's reaonable, given that it's the dramatic new stuff, along with cyberspace, which realllllly got pummelled].

The remaining question is whether we get a deflationary implosion or not, beyond the event horizon and into the black hole. My guess then was not and that remains my guess. I think I'm positioned for what's coming, like Calvin on his trolley. ucomics.com

Mqurice

Note 1... The ridiculously slow and stupid random mutation rate and sorting by death is going to be replaced by CDNA [TM], [cyber deoxyribonucleic acid] where we run models of changes and make a really good genetic foundation for ourselves [actually, our descendants - we are doomed to our chimpoid antecedents]. CDNA with CDMA to run the communications, will create a new state of existence, above and beyond the red in tooth and claw mess from which we were born.



To: Stock Farmer who wrote (21568)7/23/2002 5:44:53 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hi John, <<… holding on to flimsy stuff while all around you the "more robust" stuff is tanking?>>

Maurice may have been first fooled, and then upon jolting by the thread, gotten upset by this devious string of propaganda disseminated amongst an equity cult population that shows not one bit of survivalist’s anticipatory instinct, intend on committing financial suicide [EDIT: please feel free to complete the historically valuable list, to be passed down the generations thus, ‘see Junior, this is what your foolish dad did when …’]:

(a) Stocks always go up in the long term
(b) Long term buy and hold rewards
(c) Stock should not have risk premium
(d) Page views are better than revenue
(e) In a recession, technology shares will not suffer, (presumably because people always need a new PC whereas they do not really need to eat)
(f) Bull market corrections can be quite violent at times, but the bull is intact
(g) SnP500 will hit 1,500
(h) Market up in first week of January indicates the direction for the rest of year
(i) Market up in January indicates same
(j) Market up for three days indicates a bottom
(k) stock market always up following rate cut
(l) Equity is undervalued by 15%
(m) The economy is fine
(n) Cash is not an acceptable asset class
(o) The stock market has simply diverged and detached from the economy (as opposed to the stock market is anticipating an economic depression)
(p) The bottom is in, because mutual fund outflows have started
(q) The economic recession is mild [EDIT: because people are eating and driving their home]
(r) The world will not end [EDIT: however, no guarantees for many of its financially suicidal numb-nuts]

The above constitute a subset of the mind-numbing propaganda that has helped to separate people from their hard earned money and easy undeserved speculative gains.

BTW, that was an impressive struggle last night, what with the DJIA up, and Dollar up, before and at opening. The primary trend of down is probably not broken, because we are not that lucky.

At some point the big economies will roll over, as the stock markets are predicting, followed by market panic.

Chugs, Jay