Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (2947)	7/23/2002 10:50:32 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

wow.. maybe banking problems both abroad and in NYCity I still think we will see a nightmare in foreign banks esp Asia and South America but this field report indicates weird stuff going on last Friday we had a teaser glimpse that JPMorganChase was having liquidity capital problems not a peep since but I havent searched long and hard for a followup I take it "C" is Citibank, Citigroup it is my firm belief that the stock market is declining for an UNSEEN UNSTATED reason and that has to do with banking generally thanks for that diddy from the field if a bank crisis unfolds within the USA, then gold will shoot up / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (2947)	7/23/2002 11:16:50 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Double Dip recession scenario looking far more likely now (dont tell US economists, since they are still clueless as they work feverishly with their faulty assumptions, wrong focus, and total lack of inclusion of the falling dollar into their models they place far too much emphasis on inventory levels and far too little emphasis on debt liquidation/ deflation and seem to have forgotten the all-import capex spending strike) from Eric Fry - The incredible shrinking stock market is certain to put a huge dent in consumer confidence - and that is almost certain to put a huge dent in economic growth. Therefore, the double-dip recession I predicted in the Daily Reckoning several months ago may well be coming to pass. - "The case for the double dip is even more compelling today than it was when I first embraced such a prognosis at the start of this year," says Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach. "Here's why...the demand side of the macro equation remains weak and exceedingly vulnerable to a relapse...In my opinion, the sharp recent decline in the stock market increases the odds of a double dip in the US economy. I would now place a little more than a 50% probability on the likelihood that real GDP growth will turn negative before year-end 2002. - Furthermore, says Roach, "America's double dip would be the world's double dip...Dip-buyers beware." -end-