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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (38315)	7/23/2002 5:07:15 PM
From: StockOperator	Respond to of 52237

Ramsey Su, <<<short sellers, in my opinion, perform much better due diligence than the long side. They certainly do not just look at a chart or two and jump to some uneducated conclusion. Have you ever considered why QCOM is not cracking as you repeatedly suggested? QCOM is reporting earnings this Thursday. They have already announced they will meet estimates. Could QCOM surprise up or down? Of course. But under the current circumstances, only uninformed careless traders (or very well informed traders who has done more DD than just reading a chart) would even playing QCOM at this time, where there are so many other opportunities offering far better reward/risk ratios.>>> Your post was well worth the typing. First of all I will take issue with it because even though you don't mention me personally, you do reference "uneducated", "uninformed", "careless" along side with traders who should be doing more DD than just reading a chart. Which sounds to me like you're taking issue with my call that stocks like QCOM will share the same fate as the rest of these tech stocks. If I am reading into your post let me apologize right off the bat. If not let me respond to yours by addressing your first paragraph first. My first question is have you been reading any of my posts over the past couple of months. During that time I have laid out my opinions of where this market was going while backing that opinion up by picking apart this market one group/one stock at a time. My sole tool has been the charts of these companies and indices. So whether you choose to call that process as "jumping to some uneducated conclusion" to is up to you. Whether you believe my methods to be true is one thing but you cannot argue with results. When the DOW was pushing towards 10,500 in March I stepped up to the plate on this thread and laid out my thoughts on what the rest of the year was going to be like, and where are we now. I made individual stock calls like CHIR at almost 50 and here we are at 27; I made negative comments on IVGN at close to 70 and here we are at 29; VRSN in the high 30's and here we are at 5!; the turn in DIS at 25 and here we are 15, the turn in AMZN; the break in LEH and FNM,,,,,,,, I could easily go on and on. But what's the point. The proof is right here on the SI archives. So you should at least be fair and perhaps even a little open minded when being critical on my call for QCOM. Besides I can't help it that QCOM is just late in showing it's hand. Your second paragraph. You're right QCOM is going to release their numbers on Thursday and I am going to assume you are right when they said they will meet their estimates. My question to you is what difference does that make. How many companies over the many months have met their estimates, traded higher in either the premarket or after market only to get killed a week, two weeks, a month later. Just look at tech in general. The trend in prices across the board these many months has been down. With no bottom in sight yet. So I am less concerned with what QCOM SAYS but instead more concerned with the way the market is going to react to it. Regarding your repeated posts on the careless way anyone could trade by just looking at the charts I would say you are 100% wrong. You and I have been around SI for some time. Just look at the threads that continue to thrive on this medium and you are going to see threads where most of the talk is dedicated to picking apart this market or stocks by way of TA. Whether its Elliott, candles, pnf, or just plain bar charts it works. Like I said I think you need to be a little bit more open minded to something that is obviously working for a whole lot of people. Let me finish my point on TA, because it is a big passion of mine, by saying to you or anyone else out there that is listening that TA works. Whether your talking about overall market direction, trading individual stocks, currencies, commodities, it does not matter. I will even tell you that you don't even need the many oscillators and moving avgs to do it successfully. My charts consist of nothing more than the OHLC bar charts with the ability to look at prices on a multiple time frame as well as looking at big chunks of time. In the case of the indices at least 25 yrs, while looking at the entire life of an individual company. Whether thats one, five, or ten years. That is all I've used to make every good or bad call on SI since 98. So yes I don't like QCOM at almost $30 a share. As far as a risk/reward ratio goes it offers the highest rewards here simply because it has traded in such a tight range. Just took a look at QCOM's close down $1.45 today. Still not a complete break but I will continue to stress my points from yesterday that tech to include those stocks that are late to the party in showing their hand will share the same fate as the rest of tech. Just look at JBL lately, in the recent weeks it has begun to crack hitting lows we haven't seen in over six months. In this bear market environment why would QCOM be any different? Either way resolution is close at hand. You and I will have our answer before this qtr. is through. If you are right I will be the first to acknowledge it. Good trading. SO