Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (97549)	7/23/2002 2:55:07 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

CHARTING INDICATORS: Forget Stocks ... Sell Homes 23 Jul 08:00 (This article was originally published Monday) By Stephen Cox, CMT A Dow Jones Newswires Column NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. stock market turned decidedly bearish on Friday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is pointed into the 7400 handle at least. Evidently, people who are losing money on stock sales are turning to the next best thing - homes. For example, it's reasonable to think that the U.S. housing sales have been fired up by the falling long-term interest rates that typically accompany a bear market in stocks. The chart confirms that the housing market will remain brisk even if U.S. new home sales in June are down on the month, a development that many economists anticipate. But don't be surprised if the employment cost index, to be released later this week confirms ongoing dollar inflation. The employment cost index for the second quarter will be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT; the consensus of economists is for an 0.9% increase over the first quarter. U.S. June new home sales will be released Thursday at 10 a.m. EDT; the consensus expects sales of 982,000 homes compared with 1.028 million sold in May. U.S. new home sales recorded a technical breakout in May when they came in at 1.028 million, well above technical resistance at 995,000. This development argues for even higher home sales in coming months, a prospect that squares with a downtrend in long-term U.S. interest rates. However, it's probable that June home sales will pull back to nearly test the 995,000 support level before a serious uptrend gets underway. Look for June new home sales to come in at 996,000. A lower reading, would be 981,000, I estimate, which is in line with the consensus. A higher new home sales figure would probably bring the indicators in at 1.054 million. The ECI is likely to have made gains in the past quarter, perhaps a reflection of serious dollar weakness. The chart implies, moreover, that the index will come in just above expectations, probably 1.0% above the Q1 figure. A lower reading is unlikely, according to the chart. To try out the new Charting Markets weekly technical newsletter go to http://www..com/charting/charting.html For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page 4247; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets." -By Stephen Cox; Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.) Data by Commodity Research Bureau (END) DOW JONES NEWS 07-23-02 08:00 AM