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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4254)	7/23/2002 7:31:33 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95378

HOW LOW IS LOW ENOUGH? Closing Technical Market Comments Tue Jul 23rd 2002 thetechtrader.com By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) The session started out somewhat promising with a rally that failed near resistance and that turned out to be the highs for day, as we spent the rest of the day going down. We were only interrupted by what looked like a another promising rally about two hours before the close, but that only lasted about 20 minutes and the market headed south again when that rally also failed to get through intraday overhead resistance. Nasdaq, which had been holding up relatively well during recent sessions, closed down particularly hard today and it closed going away at the lows for the day & the year under 900 at 896. The NDX is now 3900 points or 83% below the March 2000 4816 high. The question is “how low is low “? Well, apparently not low enough because the indices continue to get pounded nearly every day. The Dow tried valiantly today on several occasions to rally and get into the positive column, but at the end of the day it was also down, off 82. The S&P 500 closed below 800 for the first time in nearly five years and was down 22 points today as well. The SOX index got hammered for 15 points or 5%. The OEX, or S&P 100, closed below 400 for the first time in a very long time. It was rout today and the technicals bore that out, with only 569 up and 2714 down, nearly climactic numbers, on New York. Up/down volume about 5-1 negative, with a total of about 2.5 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange alone and about 1.9 billion on Nasdaq. So New York outpaced Nasdaq today and that was quite climactic. The technicals on Nasdaq showed about 780 up and 2735 stocks down. Nearly 4-1 ratio. Most technical indicators are now very severely oversold with the NYSE McClellan Oscillator closing at –318, the second most oversold reading ever!. The VXN, or Nasdaq Volatility Index, was up about 4 more today. It got over 67 and closed at 66.40, while the VIX, the NYSE Volatility Index, got over 50 for the first time since the September lows, getting up to 52.50, closing at 50.50 an even higher close than in Sept. New lows on the NYSE were at an extreme 700! Total volume traded in just the S&P 500 stocks totaled a staggering 2.92 billion! All these technicals indicate extremes only seen at very important lows! A review of my personal board showed only one stock, Amgen, up 32 cents with everything else down. It was extremely climactic, once again led by Microsoft down 3.30, eBay down 2.89, QLogic getting hammered today down 3 1/2, and several other stocks down between 1 and 2, but most of the Nasdaq stocks only gave it up in the last hour or two and they were holding well all day. So it looks like the capitulation is upon us, and tomorrow could very well be the very significant bottom I’ve been looking for because of the above mentioned technical extremes that we’ve reached and cycle lows that are now due, as well as being so far below the moving averages that a snapback rally at least is inevitable at this point. Good trading! Harry Gottfried I heard on CNN Headline News that 92 out of the Nasdaq 100 were down today. That is bad enough for capitulation in my book. RtS