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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (65018)	7/24/2002 9:30:46 AM
From: RMP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT: From today's Harry Newtons daily column: technologyinvestor.com First, private investors -- what Wall Street calls retail investors -- are livid and totally fed up. They're bailing out of the market big time. This takes two forms. They are selling their entire stock portfolios en masse and they are selling (also called redeeming) their entire mutual funds. And they are dumping the money in money market funds or other short-term instruments. Second, mutual funds, in order to meet the huge redemptions are basically selling all the companies they've made money on in recent months. That includes the HMOs, the drug companies, the brokerage and financials, the home builders, etc. This accounts for their recent surprising weakness. Third, companies with share buyback programs in place are buying back their own shares like crazy. Fourth, the hedge funds are sitting on the sidelines with their "finger on the trigger" ready to start buying big time the moment they detect a positive turn in the market. But, having been burned so often in recent months by "suckers' rallies," they're being very, very cautious and staying on the sidelines, for now. Conventional wisdom says that "retail is ultra-dumb." Retail sells at the bottom and buys at the top. QED, says conventional wisdom, we're at the bottom. And there's going to be a sharp rise up shortly. At least that's the theory.

To: michael97123 who wrote (65018)	7/24/2002 10:56:59 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Prediction DJIA: 2005-7 That's a tough call, Mike. Three years is an eternity during which the Dow could very well range between the high and low of the entire bear market. But assuming that we are by then half way through a 16 year secular bear market that can be expected to overshoot on the downside as the previous bull market "overshot" on the march from 800 to 12,000, I would say that a DJIA range of 5,000 to 9,000 would be likely. Caveat: the DJIA tends to be much less volatile than our tech stocks. Please don't ask me to predict the QQQ. <g> Sam

To: michael97123 who wrote (65018)	7/24/2002 5:40:26 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: Where will averages be 3 years out and 5 years out? I'll tell you that (+/- 75%), if you first tell me what interest rates and earnings growth we'll see in the interim. We could hold a betting pool, to guess when the Nas sets new all-time highs. 2011, is my guess. That's based on 15%/year growth in the Nas, which means 9+ years is required for a quadrupling from 1290 to 5132. Nice start, today. Now we just need 9 years of follow-through. Feel better now?