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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (183299)	7/25/2002 12:20:27 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

EVERYONE needs ot depreciate... looks like gold is the biggest no brainer in history! DAK

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (183299)	7/25/2002 6:25:26 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

EZ never really got out of recession at 9.1% unemployment I would not call it recovery. The monkey's at the major banks needed as story and could be that it was engineered by the US Treasury. EZ politicians got the parity pride and the US the dough - recovery in basic industries. Not sure about Spain as they are more dependent of Argentina and Brazil etc. Which are basket cases

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (183299)	7/25/2002 8:12:53 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

WHAT GERMAN RECOVERY? Poor sentiment in Germany reflected equally gloomy business surveys in Belgium and Italy earlier this week, in a sign that the euro zone economic recovery remained shaky. Confirming the tough climate, giant German electronics and engineering group Siemens AG SIEGn.DE on Wednesday reported a 20 percent fall in orders for the quarter to end-June. Poor economic statistics dented hopes for European recovery on Thursday as businesses took fright at toppling stock markets and fears a stronger euro will make their exports harder to sell. A key measure of German business confidence unexpectedly fell, Dutch firms scaled back forecasts for the third month in a row and British June retail sales hit a two-year trough. Only in France were there some encouraging signs, but the higher consumer spending there in June may have been helped by summer sales kicking off earlier than last year. The Ifo institute's top economist Gernot Nerb said the sentiment data should persuade the European Central Bank to refrain from raising interest rates or even to contemplate lowering them again to keep the euro zone economy on track In a headache for Schroeder, German unemployment has been rising for months and think-tanks warn the economic recovery in Germany may falter before it even gets fully under way. Nerb said a decline in the Ifo business climate index for three straight months would indicate an interruption of the economic upswing, which followed a shallow recession at the end of last year. The index has now fallen for two months. "It might be that we see a double dip, but at this stage it is too early to say. At this stage, I think it's 50/50 if we see only a short pause or if we see a double dip," Nerb said in a television interview. Nerb told Reuters later he used the term "double dip" to refer to a possible false start -- a clear interruption of the economic upswing -- rather than a complete end to it. "It is possible that after an interruption of 2-3 months, we'll return to a growth path. We have seen in the past that the economy slowed down again for a half-year, before the real upswing began," he said. Companies fear recent sharp declines in global stock markets will hit business investment and consumer confidence, while the the strong rise in the euro is darkening exporters' outlook. Euro zone government bond and Euribor interest rate futures rose briefly after release of the data, but the common currency shrugged it off and edged to dollar parity. Analysts said they had expected a decline in German business expectations, which fell by more than two points in July. But the fall by more than a point in firms' views of current trading conditions was a nasty surprise. "The fact that the current situation component also fell places a question mark over the expected upturn in the second half of this year," said Dirk Chlench, an economist at Essen Hypothekenbank. Chlench said it was worrying that the decline came from the manufacturing sector of the economy, which tended to be less volatile than the construction or retail sectors. Nerb said the fall in expectations was surprising but was not uncommon in past business cycles. The expectations index, which reflects companies' view of business six months ahead, fell to 102.5 from 104.9 points. The assessment of current business conditions worsened in July, with the index at 77.9 from 78.3 in June. reuters.com