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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (13785)	7/25/2002 2:56:31 PM
From: High Country Trader	Respond to of 19219

Rydex bull timers never give up it seems. I don't watch the Rydex numbers as much as in the old days. However, J.T.'s Rydex assets update last night really caught my eye. One big day and all the timers pile into the NDX Velocity. Actually, the bull NDX timers had remained resolutely stubborn throughout the two month long NDX decline - at least the way I interpret the numbers. This may be hard to fathom, but I wouldn't be surprised that(violent bear market notwithstanding) when this thing ever bottoms that Venture assts are 3 to 4 to 1 over Velocity and that Arktos levels are above OTC. And when we do turn for good no one will believe the rally and the assets will remain tilted to the bear funds for several weeks after said turn. At the beginning of the great bull run in January 95, sentiment was terrible as evidenced by a host of sentiment indicators and remained bearish as the market steadily rose - no one believed the rally.

To: J.T. who wrote (13785)	8/15/2002 9:25:08 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Wednesday, August 14th, 2002: ************** Money Market 1.510 BILLION *********** Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%)) SPX Long - NOVA 188.8 Million SPX Short- URSA 314.6 Million NDX Long - OTC 461.3 Million NDX Short- ARKTOS 140.3 Million ********** Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 180.2 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 233.6 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 217.2 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 206.4 Million ********* Sector Funds: XAU Precious Metals 59.3 Million XOI Energy 14.2 Million OSX Energy Services 16.1 Million BKX Banking 61.5 Million BTK Biotech 206.3 Million RUT 2000 - MIKROS 46.1 Million RLX Retail 35.0 Million Telecommunications 5.9 Million *************************************** Commentary reprinted from the July 24th Lows. ********************* Last night I was writing on the low level of 5 day RSI levels and ready to make the comparisons to 09/21/01 but I erased that update and instead decided to talk about Philip Carret and if there was ever a time to buy and hold for the next 12 - 18 months... the time was at hand. The market is at the end of its cleanse and rinse cycle for the next leg up in the market. This mornings action was perfect from a Bullish perspective. The boyz jammed the sell tape early and within the first hour. Soon thereafter, the selling all dried up. Bottoms are made when there are no sellers left. Or, the Bears just took the day off from selling into the rally and decided to wait for another day. Nevertheless, Bear markets don't last forever and the end of the world is again put on hold. No upside break away gap out of the blocks as this will come later as the sell all rallies gets replaced by the buy all dips. But this phenomenon does not happen overnight. What have we learned? Simply this: in the parabolic melt-up from 1995 to 2000, it is a delusion to think that rising earnings were worth increasingly more in a Bull Market just as it is a delusion to think declining earnings were worth increasingly less in this latest 2000 - 2002 Bear Market in valuing the price of a stock. In the end, Money and Value are a 'State of Mind'. And therein lies the rub in the psychology of the market. And isn't it amazing.... that the NYSE members state of mind has been one of massive accumulation since mid February... Just as it is equally amazing that the inmates that now think they run the stock market asylum; that is the general public and hedge funds, continue to short with reckless abandon above the specialists week after week and continue to do the work of the specialists shorting stock 'creating their own perceived 'order flow'. Over the next 12 to 18 months, could it be conceivably possible that the inmates are about to get their squeezed heads handed to them on a silver platter??? Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% Long SPX TITAN Best Regards, J.T.