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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4302)	7/25/2002 9:29:43 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95572

Deutsche Bank says chip equip. rally 'unsustainable' --8:44am - By Tomi Kilgore Analyst Timothy Arcuri at Deutsche Bank believes that any rally in the semiconductor equipment sector based on broad market technicals would be "unsustainable" in the near terms, as his research indicates that fundamentals are deteriorating and the outlook remains unclear. Arcuri added that he feels headcount reductions of 5 to 10 percent are coming at many companies in the sector. On the positive side, he noted that inventories were "very low," which could help provide fuel to a recovery. Among stocks in his coverage universe seeing pre-open activity, Applied Materials (AMAT) is shedding $1.05 to $15.50, Novellus Systems (NVLS) is losing $1.37 to $25.90 and KLA-Tencor (KLAC) is sliding $1.62 to $40.71.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4302)	7/25/2002 9:33:22 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95572

From Briefing.com: 8:53AM S&P futures vs fair value: -4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.5. Cash market poised to start the day on a weaker note... Some expected selling interest following yesterday's massive rally combined with AOL's admission that the SEC is conducting a fact-finding inquiry into its accounting, Taiwan Semi cutting its 2002 capex budget (negative for chip equip. cos.), and a much weaker than expected June Durable Orders report are among the key factors keeping a lid on bullish enthusiasm 8:37AM S&P futures vs fair value: -8.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.0. The initial claims data notwithstanding, the futures market hasn't been pleased with this morning's economic data... The most troubling of the reports was Durable Orders, which declined 3.8%... Ex-transportation, durable orders were down 3.1%-- a decline that is raising concerns about the pace of business investment 8:36AM Pre-Market Movers: Semi Equips hit by TSM outlook : Semiconductor Equipment makers lower on the Taiwan Semi CapEx reduction: AMAT -6%, NVLS -5%, KLAC -4%; however, industry member CCMP up 10% after posting blow-out earnings... QCOM (-5%) downgraded ahead of earnings... AMGN (+9%) and FDRY (+7.5%) upgraded after reporting quarterly results. 8:28AM Cisco Systems upgraded at Dresdner (CSCO) 13.09: Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein upgrades to HOLD from Sell, saying the downside appears more limited at current levels, although co is still somewhat vulnerable to the ongoing debate about option expensing, a shift away from pro-forma earnings, and greater scrutiny applied to its accounting practices. Price target is $13. 8:24AM Foundry Ntwks upgraded at Deutsche Securities (FDRY) 6.78: Deutsche Securities upgrades to BUY from Mkt Perform after the co beat ests last night; firm bases upgrade on conviction that its restructuring and new products have significantly enhanced its outlook; raises 2002 rev/EPS ests to $297 mln/$0.14 from $269 mln/$0.07 and raises 2003 to $378 mln/$0.31 from $315 mln/$0.18; raises price target to $10 from $6. 8:20AM Cabot Micro blows past consensus (CCMP) 34.75: Reports Q3 earnings of $0.54 per share, $0.21 better than the Multex consensus. Revenues rose 32.8% to $68.4 mln vs the $55.3 mln consensus. CCMP says it is difficult to predict Q4 revs, but is encouraged by the pace of technology advancement being made by its customers. 8:17AM Qualcomm downgraded by UBS (QCOM) 29.10: UBS Warburg downgrades stock this morning (not Deutsche) to HOLD from Buy. Firm reducing FY03 pro forma est to $1.05 from $1.11 reflecting lower industry demand of 82 mln units versus prior est of 86 mln. Believes that concerns over lower than expected industry volume could contribute to limiting upside in the shares. Firm's new price target is $32. 7:58AM Amgen upgraded at Morgan Stanley (AMGN) 37.09: Morgan Stanley upgrades to OVERWEIGHT from Equal-Weight after the co beat ests last night; firm says they are becoming more positive on shares, as several of their concerns have been addressed and valuation is near its lows. Price target is $75. 7:58AM Taiwan Semi CapEx guidance weighs on futures : One of the issues pressuring the Nasdaq futures this morning is downward CapEx guidance issued this morning by Taiwan Semiconductor. The company stated that it expects 2002 CapEx to be less than $2 bln, compared to the the $2.5 bln previously forecast. 7:37AM AOL Time Warner downgraded at Merrill Lynch, others (AOL) 11.40: Merrill Lynch downgrades to Near-Term NEUTRAL from Buy based on last night's announcement of an SEC fact-finding inquiry and reduced CY02-03 ests for the America Online unit; although mgmt provided welcome transparency for the AOL division, operating trends have yet to bottom; cuts CY02 EBITDA est to $9.8 bln from $9.865 bln, in line with the low end of guidance, and cuts CY03 EBITDA est to $10.7 bln from $11.2 bln. Separately, Deutsche Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Salomon Smith Barney so far have also downgraded the stock. finance.yahoo.com RtS