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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15554)	7/25/2002 10:34:06 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

stockman, thanks for the 'H&S doesn't work' link. At first I thought H&S had little value [because people see it everywhere], then I decided it had value and now I'm full circle. G.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15554)	7/25/2002 11:07:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 23153

Head-and-shoulders trading is shown to represent a particular type of noise trading: positivefeedback speculation in which noise is confused with information. Head-and-shoulders trading qualifies as positive-feedback speculation because sales are triggered by downward price movements and vice versa. ny.frb.org I think this FRB staff member overlooks the role that crowd psychology, positive feedback loops and momentum trading plays in speculation. Sam

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15554)	7/25/2002 11:21:08 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

I think I remember reading that Victor Niederhoffer got wiped out in the last go round, had to sell his house, everything. I think it was in the Taleb book, or the New Yorker profile: home.netcom.com Yup, there it is. Vot a memory I got. If you don't have the time for the article, just read the last 2 pages. Kb

To: stockman_scott who wrote (15554)	7/25/2002 3:40:18 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

>>> Don’t bet the rent on technical analysis <<< HAR, HAR, HAR! As if technical analysis consisted of just a H&S pattern. Patterns are nothing more than road signs. You don't drive down the road and only see yield signs. There are all sorts of signs to keep traffic flowing, as there are many different technical indicators to keep an investor flowing without too much harm. When you come across one of these road signs, H&S pattern, cup and saucer, rising triangle etc., you then look to your oscillators and other technical indicators for confirmation. The value of TA is in it's timing, but timing doesn't mean anything if the investor doesn't use good management principles to help that flow of information. When the technical indicators flash a buy signal and the price turns opposite your call, you must cut your losses very short, (I use 3-4%), and wait for the indicators to line up again. Articles like the one Niederhoffer wrote does a disservice to people, in my opinion. How can anybody succeed by focusing on one segment of a strategy? We can look to the world of sports for inspiration on how to approach the world of investing. The winners have a good offense and a good defense. You don't win championships unless you are effective with both offense and defense. The same thing with investing. Anybody can go on offense, but it's the defense that separates the winners from the losers. The advantage of TA is that it lets you know with accuracy, when it's time to go on offense. If you're wrong, you'd better have a good defensive game plan. da-coach-bum