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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (85820)	7/25/2002 4:54:06 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, Good analysis. I think the one weakness may be your statement that: "A 2 GHz Athlon would already have performance equivalent to the 2.4 GHz, 533 FSB, 1066 RDRAM Northwood." Let me go through the results with a rough guess which processor would win: Quake III Arena NW Quake III Arena1024 NW Quake III ArenaNV15 NW 3DMark2000 Pro TB 3DMark2001 Pro NW Newtek Lightwave NW XMPeg4.5 TB Sysmark 2002 NW Sysmark 2002 Office NW (close) Sysmark 2002InterCC NW LameMP3 TB MP3 Maker NW WinACE NW Cinema 4D XL R7 TB 3D Studio Max TB SPEC Viewperf DRV08 NW SPEC Viewperf DX07 TB SPECViewperfLIGHT05 TB (close) SPECViewperfPROE01 NW (close) SPECViewperfUGS01 TB Comanche 4 NW Pinnacle Studio 7 NW Sandra CPU TB Sandra Multimedia TB Sandra Memory NW PC Mark 2002 NW (close) PC Mark Memory NW 10 out of 27, which is close but still not there. I don;t know if SSE and slightly faster memory modules are already counted in the xpected 20% or 25% improvement, but they would turn a the close results around so would nForce2. Joe

To: Petz who wrote (85820)	7/25/2002 5:20:13 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, I think your analysis uses too little data (only the performance difference between the top two bins in only one testing environment), and that doesn't take into account the margin of error when testing. You also assume AMD's optimistic Hammer projections are going to be consistent over every application, and I think that's a very bad assumption. Additionally, you ignore any platform improvements that the Pentium 4 might get between now and the end of the year, and in order to derive your percentage figures, you have to make assumptions about future AMD products that haven't yet been released. There are too many errors in your methodology to make an accurate conclusion. I still think that a 2GHz launch number falls short of what AMD needs to get a performance advantage over where Intel is going with Northwood. A 3.06GHz Hyperthreaded Northwood has a good chance of outperforming a 2GHz Clawhammer on the majority of benchmarks, IMO. AMD might need 2.2GHz or 2.4GHz to show clear leadership, and I'm not sure they can get much farther than that without .09u manufacturing. wbmw