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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4326)	7/26/2002 9:34:46 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95391

From Briefing.com: 8:59AM S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. The pre-market tone continues to improve. Look for the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index due out at 9:45 ET to provide some direction soon after the open. Yet keep in mind this will be the revised number for July which tends to induce a more muted number than the preliminary read. Consensus estimates are for a revised reading of 86.5 which matches exactly with the preliminary number released earlier this month. 8:34AM Western Digital upgraded at Soundview (WDC) 3.09: Soundview upgrades to NEUTRAL from Underperform based on greater confidence in the co's gross margin outlook and signs that pricing is stabilizing; raises 2003 EPS est to $0.32 from $0.19, and maintains year-end price target of $5. 8:21AM Atmel financial guidance remains unchanged (ATML) 2.36: A week after its quarterly conference, ATML comments that financial guidance remains unchanged, and that the co is executing on its restructuring plan to bring costs down and return to profitability. 8:18AM Sanmina-SCI puts some liquidity questions to rest -- CIBC (SANM) 3.52: CIBC World Mkts believes SANM's conference call last night put to rest many questions surrounding liquidity. On the call, SANM covered liquidity, previously unannounced debt covenants, cash sources and uses over the coming qtrs; SANM also reiterated guidance for the SeptQ. 8:08AM Goldman Sachs upgrades semi equipment group : Goldman Sachs upgrades the semi equipment group as company and investor capitulation that orders have turned down drove a sell-off in the stocks; while fundamentals are not likely to improve in the near-term, firm believes that funds flow and seasonality may drive a meaningful move in the stocks. Upgrades AMAT, KLAC, and ATMI to TRADING BUY from Mkt Outperform, NVLS, LRCX, and AEIS to TRADING BUY from Mkt Perform, ACLS to MKT OUTPERFORM from Mkt Perform, MKSI to MKT OUTPERFORM from Mkt Underperform, and CMOS to MKT PERFORM from Mkt Underperform. 8:04AM Motorola cut to Hold at CIBC on mgmt change (MOT) 12.18: CIBC World Mkts downgrades to HOLD from Buy due to loss of COO Ed Breen to Tyco. Firm's investment thesis on the shares was based upon success in the handset operations, strong cost controls in other divisions, and the likelihood of a divestiture of the infrastructure and semi operations; firm now concerned that this thesis is in jeopardy and would prefer to wait on the sidelines. 7:55AM Adaptec downgraded at Merrill Lynch (ADPT) 6.51: Merrill Lynch downgrades to Near-Term and Long-Term NEUTRAL from Buy; with ADPT's iSCSI OEM partners reducing their iSCSI efforts, the co is no longer able to comment on when meaningful iSCSI rev will appear (it had expected to see $15 mln in this fiscal year); cuts Q2 rev/EPS ests to $92 mln/breakeven from $105 mln/$0.06, giving an implied value to the stock of $6.56. 7:34AM JDS Uniphase downgraded at CSFB (JDSU) 2.53: CSFB downgrades to HOLD from Buy after the co reported weaker than expected earnings last night; firm sees no signs of a demand recovery and no near-term benefits from restructuring, and while the co retains a strong balance sheet and clear #1 mkt share, it is too far from profitability for the stock to work; also, JDSU may forfeit its premium multiple (relative to peers) if it does not improve its execution on cost cutting in the next several qtrs. Cuts 2002-03 ests and price target to $2.20 from $7. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+^IXIC+^VIX&d=t Well we do have a good open at least! RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (4326)	7/26/2002 10:06:52 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95391

Kirk, your suspicions sound reasonable. Maybe some day we'll find out how they do this. If those guys all know each other, it would be very hard to prove. "we're out of the semi equips and they're too expensive. How can we buy them cheaper? <wink>". Ever play "crack the whip" as a kid? This is where you get the whole school yard to hold hands and the leader goes here and there. The closer you are to the front, the easier it is. The kid on the end usually gets tossed and a skinned knee when the leader "cracks the whip" which is a change of direction. I think the Brokerage houses are like lemmings and the mutual funds are the same. They are paid to beat the market so they can't afford to get too far astray from the market... IF a biggie changes direction, then they don't want to go against the herd... The individual investor who gets his or her information from radio and TV shows and has no idea of valuation is just like the poor kid at the end of the schoolyard snake. I think what Cary and I try to do is judge just how large the school yard is which gives a range to how much the whip can snap, but we don't know for sure if the whip will traverse the full range so we buy at incremental targets and sell over incremental targets... Kirk PS 5 straight days of 2 hrs or more of good windsurfing on the Bay! My portfolio has been crunched the last few weeks with this capx correction but I still get to smile after a good afternoon of windsurfing. I hope you are getting out too. Some things ARE more important than money. <G>