Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)	7/26/2002 1:50:10 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

While the commitment to a 300mm fab may well be in excess of $2.5B, it's unlikely that most Fab Managers, even in the top 10, will fully equip the fab at the 'get-go'. My presumption is that lines will be added as required throughout the fab's life.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)	7/28/2002 2:29:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

a really good comprehensive econ outlook, NOT GOOD... gold-eagle.com warning signals: - money supply growth slowing - bigbank lending slowing down - declining yield spread between shorterm TBills and TBonds - declining income/consumption ratio - declining equipment/consumer goods production - rising consumer debt/GDP ratio - rising mortgage debt/GDP ratio conclusion: a big economic slowdown is coming MY CONCLUSION: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN MAINSTREAM PRESS/MEDIA IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SHALLOW AND COMPROMISED funny how Shostak doesnt even find "reduced inventory" as even worth mentioning !!! / JW

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)	7/31/2002 9:22:14 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 10921

economists remain consistent: wrong by 120% in Q2 GDP once again providing continued evidence of my claims the profession is politicized, uses faulty assumptions routinely marketwatch.com same old same old economist consensus for Q2 was 2.4%, with actual at 1.1% very typical I have said 1000 times on these threads economists are the worst practicing statisticians among a dozen types it is amazing that so many people pay attention to what they have to say revision for Q1 was from 6% to 5% worse still, much of the 5% was from govt spending on war materiel and airport security systems try that in real business and you get fired within a year CAN ANYONE SAY "DOUBLE DIP RECESSION? next we get the falloff from wealth effect reduction in consumer spending which has been improperly minimized for the last few months as Stanford's Tversky reported 30 years ago, the "asymmetric wealth effect" hits much harder with losses than gains so we have the idiotic press/media trying to tell us now two ridiculously incorrect things now: 1. the stock market will CATCH UP to the economy (they have yet to learn that stocks are a leading discounter) 2. the wealth loss effect will be inconsequential (spending will be considerably lower than rosey "forecasts") I say both are wrong expect job loss announcements in the next several weeks to accelerate just when more bankruptcies are announced and probably when shareholder lawsuits pick up in earnest / jim

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)	8/1/2002 10:24:07 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 10921

more ISM grist for the mill on economist lack of capability July ISM Index, which showed a reading of 50.5 That was below the consensus estimate of 55.0 and down from 56.2 in the prior month... Though the ISM reading is still suggestive of growth in the manufacturing sector, the market is disheartened by the decline from the prior month as it feeds concerns about the pace, and sustainability, of the economic recovery this could be from total lack of profits it could be from damage to foreign economies from declining USdollar whichever, neither seems to enter economists boilerplate models those models might have been relevant in the 1970-1985 era but not now, not any longer ONCE MORE ECONOMISTS GOT IT VERY WRONG they expected ISI (formerly known as NAPM) at 55.0 actual was 50.5 only 10% off try that in real business and you get fired the DoubleDip Recession has been disputed, discredited, dismissed, and found to be politically incorrect unfortunately, its validity is being reinforced weekly before Christmas we should see the USdollar decline in full resumption, with the astonishing and perplexing development that interest rates are rising as foreigners sell USTBonds / jim

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10554)	8/1/2002 4:36:35 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Cary, I have sometimes referred to you as the Warren Buffett [WB] of Tech. But as I observe his latest forays into the bloody telecom and gas pipeline sectors, I have come to the conclusion that he has tools, leverage, resources and influence that simply cannot be matched by a small investor with a portfolio of common stocks, no matter how wise, patient, or disciplined such a value investor may be. I am not in any way suggesting that your strategy is fundamentally flawed. In fact, your returns have greatly exceed his over the past 6 years. But as I watch him execute here among the telecom and pipeline carcasses, cutting deals for valuable physical assets from distressed sellers at amazing bargain prices, I cannot help but be impressed. Unlike the common stockholder who can lose everything, he has important secured creditor protection. As you are not buying distressed companies or their assets, it is not really fair to compare you with Buffett. But you do seem to be "blood" brothers. I look forward to monitoring your comparative LT performance. Sam