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Gold/Mining/Energy : An obscure ZIM in Africa traded Down Under -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (79)	7/27/2002 4:27:07 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 867

Hello Jay. Election night in New Zealand and it's shaping up to be a Florida election where it all hinges on voters who didn't know the difference between Jim Anderton and B J Anderson and they each had a picture of their parties logo beside the name to help reduce confusion. Some people have already complained that they voted mistakenly for the wrong Andertonson and want to change their vote. But they've been told to take a hike. There is only about 50 votes in it at the moment, with votes still being counted. Meanwhile, Au is down in another GDDU day to $302 or less than a dozen Q, actually 11, which is currently priced in the old-style US$ at $26. <Well, Dr. Greenspan, wishing to provide relief for his heavily indebted land, has decided that a little inflation might be just the ticket. The economy hums along quite nicely for the rest of this year. But, next thing you know, that "little" bit of inflation builds up a head of steam and someone's got to tighten the credit screws very quickly. What happens next? > Well, several years ago I figured the script would go as it has gone, though not to such a big down pandemonium in the telecosmic and cyberspace stocks. Uncle Al did as expected and succeeded as I thought he would. Next is that the market continues to clear, people give up the Dom Perignon nightcaps, holidays in idyllic places and new Lexus luxury on an annual basis. But they'll keep buying groceries, fuel [but getting vehicles which guzzle less gas next time they buy another], booze, smokes and cdma2000 phones [coming on the market soon in the USA]. So there'll be a large economic shift to business as usual products rather than celebratory [Wheeee!!] type products and services. So there'll be glitches, bankruptcies and more mess. Uncle Al will keep interest rates low while there's no evident inflation - he does NOT want to enter a deflationary collapse and will risk inflation than that. But it won't be too long before he takes it up 0.25% just to show some teeth as a warning to any incipient irrational exuberance [yes, you might laugh, but hope springs eternal in the manic mind of bubbleonians and there's always a crowd waiting for a speculative boom, even when the bomb craters are still smoking]. I thought he'd already have done it, but I'm always a year or so early. Once the tidying up is done, economies will start booming and the restraint will have to be brought on in a hurry - but he has got a lot of leeway to increase rates, either quickly or slowly, depending on progress. Initially, shares will wallow in double, triple and quadruple bottoms as fright is taken at each interest rate rise. But at some stage, the fear will go, sales and profits will be rising and interest rates and share prices will be zooming like crazy in a double soaring. That'll take the Dow roaring past 16,000 and interest rates back up to 8% or 10%. That's my theory and script and has been since about 1997. So far, so good [Globalstar notwithstanding]. I am surprised at how long it has taken CDMA to roll out, which is why Q has been so battered. Another example of me thinking things will happen faster than they do. So, I suppose we will really see falling markets for another year, with GE showing hairy legs and the big, solid stuff being wound down in a delayed reaction to the telecosmic mayhem. So I suppose interest rates will NOT be moving for another year or so while that mess carries on and people accept their new realities. Heck, maybe two years. I think this is much bigger in meaning that the 1987 spasm, which was relatively superficial other than in New Zealand, where it was a telecosmic-level collapse like the Nasdaq from which we have not recovered. It's also like the Japanese implosion and shrivelling over a decade from 1989's 38,000 peak down to under 10,000 today, but I expect a quicker sorting out. Now, back to our election. So far, it's neck and neck. No government tonight they say! There will be coalition arguments for weeks. We will be like your ideal country - a nice little place with a good climate and no government. Mqurice