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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (71785)	7/27/2002 8:24:46 AM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

To All: The bashers on the Yahoo board make some cogent arguments why MSFT might be a dangerous place to hide these days. They claim that as the last man standing and being widely held by mutual funds that they are good sell candidates in the face of mutual fund liquidations. They also make the widely held by Index Fund arguments. I would say that the bashers over at Yahoo are more credible and more astute. The bashers over here are all emotion and no facts. They are frustrated techno wannabes that don't have much to add while the bashers at Yahoo make some legitimate points worthy of consideration. JFD

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (71785)	7/27/2002 1:54:37 PM
From: jonkai	Respond to of 74651

That's $11 per share already. it's pretty funny when someone is trying to justify $45 per share, when all they can come up with is $11 per share "already"...... and a p/e of 21 on a revenues growing at the market rate of about 11% is another funny tidbit.... (not to mention EPS has been stagnant for nearly four years now) then forgetting to take out "current liabilities" but happily putting in "current assets"...... you know something is seriously wrong there then.... what other liabilities did he forget? heres one... forgetting where the "$36 billion" in current assets minus current liabilities came from in the first place.....(think selling MSFT shares on the open market, and collecting that cash as cash flow, through employee stock options) or where the $14 billion is going in the future, (think more one time charges, and settlement after settlement after settlement in the range of $billions each to AOL, to SUNW to BEOS to EU to the CIVIL suits to Brazil, did i miss any?)... jon.

To: John F. Dowd who wrote (71785)	7/29/2002 12:48:07 AM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Funny, this is the same thing we've said on this board. Price to Cash flow will be a more important metric, especially if options are expensed. Here's what this guys says. He's right on the money. << In fiscal 2002 just ended on 6/30, MSFT generated $14.5 billion in postiive operating cash flow. The price to cash flow ratio would be about 12. I can already tell you based on the above that MSFT is trading at a significant discount to the S&P based on the DCF analysis. And believe me, when companies have to begin expensing options, every savvy investor (i.e. fund managers & pro's) will use DCF to value companies and not GAAP earnings. >>