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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnG who wrote (13866)	7/27/2002 9:35:55 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

The war with Iraq will begin winding up in late Sept to mid October after we replinish our supply of JDAMS. Risk premiums need to reflect that too. We don't know what nasty supprises Saddam will have by that time. Clearly he has the resources to construct a device to spread nuclear debris all over Manhattan or some other downtown area. And the Alquada have pleanty of suicide delivery systems. Suppose he tries to detonate 3 such devices and we have an 80% chance to stop each one. Thjis gives us only a 51% chance to stop them all. I hate to be fatalistic, but there is a high probability some severe trouble is on the way. Valuing the market based on treasury yields just doesn't get it.