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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FLACK who wrote (64226)	7/27/2002 10:09:11 PM
From: James L. Fleckenstein	Respond to of 100058

Hi Flack, I am waiting in cash for the market to turn up, correct. However, I have small amounts in about 8 different mutual funds just to track their performance on a day to day basis so I can get an idea for how each fund does relative to the others in different kinds of epochs. So when the worm turns, I will pick the one that has been behaving the best. My social awareness fund for example, has done terribly relative to the others, not going up much on rally days but going down alot on bad days. Travelers assets trust never goes as far down or as far up as the others so is my conservative equity fund. Janus capital goes down as far as the naz but never goes up as high. My utility fund lost 14% in two days last week. Thank god I only had $600 in it. and so on. A good close in the U.S. markets following a bad day in the foreign markets has been very reliable for moving large chunks overseas for one day wonders. Generally. All it takes is some bad fundamental news to screw it up. I should probably start doing it with my non-401K money. I was at Bill's house about 5 year's ago and he had a chart on his computer and I, who had made a study of TA, asked him if he was finally getting into TA and he said no, but so many other people did that he needed to watch a few key indicators. I don't know if he is still as jaded but I bet he is. He is pretty much a value guy, I think and as long as stocks are overvalued, he will shun them. Said something about intc might announce 0.30 earnings (pulled that number from thin air, I think) and asked how much I would want to pay for that? At $20 it doesn't matter how far down it is to him. Last point about him. He can't type very well. I think that limits his interest in chat. So onto the important subject, When you count cards, do you try to keep a true count in a 2 deck shoe? I tried that and utterly failed. All I can really pull off is a rough count on the big shoes to know if it is negative or not but it helps quite a bit. One more thing. I am trying to plan a week trip to Colorado with my wife and twin 4 yo boys next summer. Do you have any suggestions on the "best" trip? She likes beaches so we'll go to Hawaii but I want the boys to see something majestic. Thanks!