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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3368)7/28/2002 4:37:44 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Banks Are Havens (And Other Myths)

By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
The New York Times
July 28, 2002

Since the bear market began in March 2000, investors have been told that even if the economy suffered, the risks of investing in bank stocks were far lower than they had been in the recession of 1990. New and sophisticated risk management practices had enabled the banks to unload much of their lending risks to other market players, the argument went, while the institutions' ability to generate fees continued apace.





But a risk that the banks cannot expunge is the fear taking hold among investors that the nation's largest financial institutions were central to the financing of the stock market bubble that has burst so spectacularly. That perception is not only punishing bank stocks, which were not long ago seen as a haven for investors, but it is also casting a pall over the entire market, fund managers say. If banks are found to have facilitated corporate misdeeds — such as hiding losses at Enron, as has been alleged in Congress — severe damage will be done to already battered investor confidence in the entire financial system.

"The banks have been both the least visible and the most important components of the financing of the new economy over the last 10 years," said Jonathan H. Cohen, portfolio manager at JHC Capital in Greenwich, Conn., and former head of Internet research at Merrill Lynch. "Investors know that most Internet and telecom companies were part of a bubble, and that many brokerage houses were involved in the sustaining of the bubble. Now people are getting around to focus on the role of the commercial banks."

Bank stocks, as measured by the Philadelphia Stock Exchange/KBW Banks index, have lost 10.4 percent in the last two weeks alone. The index consists of 24 major banks and large regional institutions. Leading the way down have been Citigroup and J. P. Morgan Chase, which both fell 15 percent last week.

Traditionally among the most respected financial institutions, Citigroup and J. P. Morgan were tarnished last week when their executives came under heavy questioning by Congress on their banks' role in the Enron fiasco. Both banks denied that they facilitated the hiding of debt at Enron, but several days after the testimony, the Securities and Exchange Commission said it would scrutinize the banks' Enron-related activities.

Until May, the bank stocks were a port in the stock market's storm, a group to which investors retreated as many other sectors collapsed. Holding up these shares was the belief that the recession's short duration meant not only that big banks would soon find increasing demand from corporate clients but also that heavily indebted consumers would not default on their loans as they might have if the recession were prolonged.

"Until recently, the feeling among investors was that banks have regulators and that will keep them out of trouble," said David A. Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights, a research firm in New York. "But no one was thinking that the banks enabled the rest of the world's business problems, and that will eventually get reflected in the operating performance of the financial companies."


As bank stocks outperformed the rest of the market, their weighting in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index grew. That means that their recent downturn has hurt investors in the big, popular mutual funds that mirror the performance of the S.& P.

At the market's peak, for example, technology was the single biggest component of the S.& P. But as technology shares plummeted, financial services companies stepped into the top spot. At the end of June, financial companies accounted for 20 percent of the S.& P. The next-largest sector is information technology, at 14 percent.

Banks stocks have always been vulnerable in an economic downturn because they end up holding loans that sour with the economy. That will again be the case if the economy weakens, in spite of claims of advanced risk management techniques. But their role as potential facilitators of improper activities at companies like Enron or WorldCom or even as intermediaries that helped inflate the bubble is an additional worry for investors.

Some of the nation's biggest and most trusted banks are in this fix at least partly because of their increased reach in all areas of financial services in recent years. The Financial Modernization Act in 1999 eliminated most of the barriers to certain business set up for banks under Glass-Steagall, the legislation that came out of the Great Depression. This allowed commercial banks to compete with investment banks for the right to sell securities to investors. And the larger banks approached the business aggressively.

For example, in May 2001, WorldCom raised almost $12 billion in a bond offering managed by Citigroup. The offering came when WorldCom's was still a high-grade name in the credit markets, and was presented to investors as an issue against which other investment-grade bonds would be judged, known as a benchmark.

Because the WorldCom deal was a benchmark bond, any portfolio manager running a bond mutual fund had to own the security. So when WorldCom began its free fall earlier this year, a throng of bondholders were holding the bag. The bond sale allowed WorldCom to clear out a lot of its bank lines of credit and push back the maturity dates on the loans.

Now, with WorldCom filing bankruptcy a little more than a year after the bonds were sold, investors are questioning how much due diligence was conducted by the banks that sold the securities.

Adding to bondholders' doubts about whether this bond deal should have been done is the growing awareness of just how close Jack B. Grubman, the telecommunications analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, a Citigroup unit, was to WorldCom. Mr. Grubman has said that he attended board meetings at WorldCom. His relentlessly upbeat pronouncements on the company helped the $12 billion bond deal get done.

There are considerable risks associated with the growth of financial services conglomerates. One is that top management and the board of directors cannot possibly know what lower- and middle-level employees are doing inside the bank. "Senior management and the board of directors must have very comprehensive orientation, knowledge and understanding of what's going on, and in many instances that is not the case," said Henry Kaufman, the economist and head of Henry Kaufman & Company in New York.

And the nation's financial system, he said, is put at risk when these companies become huge conglomerates. "These conglomerates tend to move toward monopolistic practices," Mr. Kaufman said.

The banks' pitch, he said, is essentially this: "We want to be your banker, which means we want to make you the loan, syndicate the loan, underwrite your bonds and distribute them, we want to do your stock issues, we want to place your commercial paper and we want to manage some of the assets in your pension funds."

He added, "This not only diminishes competition, but it creates institutions that are too big to fail, because if they would fail then the response is they pose a systemic risk."

Some analysts say that in the interests of grabbing more of the lucrative securities underwriting deals that had been the province of the investment banks, commercial banks may have been eager to advise companies on how to get around tax rules and accounting regulations or leverage their balance sheets excessively. While such strategies may have been acceptable even as recently as last year, they are now drawing the attention of Congress and regulators and the ire of investors.

The work that J. P. Morgan Chase did for Enron, and which is now being examined by regulators, was plain-vanilla stuff, according to its executives. "They are a normal financing arrangement," William B. Harrison Jr., the bank's chief executive, said during a conference call last week. After Enron's failure, normal financing arrangements like these have become questionable.

It is perhaps predictable that just as commercial banks raced to generate fees from underwriting debt securities, more of the companies issuing them are falling on hard times. According to a study to be released on Monday by Moody's Investors Service, a total of 89 corporate bond issuers defaulted in the first half of 2002 with bonds totaling $64 billion. Twenty-one issuers defaulted on issues greater than $1 billion each. None of these numbers include WorldCom's bankruptcy filing, which occurred in the third quarter.

"A stubbornly high pace of defaults, assisted by the spectacular number and size of failures in the telecommunications sector globally and by other issuers based outside the United States, made the second quarter 2002 one of the most severe periods of credit stress since the Depression of the 1930's," said David T. Hamilton, who wrote the study.


MOODY'S said it expects the junk-bond default rate to hit 8.8 percent by year-end, down from the 10.7 percent peak reached in January, but still high. If the economy slips back into recession, banks could really be hurt.

"There are still big issues out there," Mr. Hendler at CreditSights said. "The C.E.O. sign-off date comes in a couple of weeks and there could be more of a shake-out from that," he said, referring to the new rule by the S.E.C. that chief executives must personally certify their company's financial statements.

"Banks still have venture capital issues, where valuations could go down," Mr. Hendler said. "And on the consumer side, some banks gave a good outlook for second half, but there's not enough evidence that the consumer is fine. All this weighs heavily on the banks."

nytimes.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3368)7/28/2002 6:05:54 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
Visionary's Dream Led to Risky Business

Opaque Deals, Accounting Sleight of Hand Built an Energy Giant and Ensured Its Demise

By Peter Behr and April Witt
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, July 28, 2002; Page A01

[This is one of the most comprehensive articles I have read on Enron's culture and the top management's ability to conduct such sophisticated fraud...Below, I have attached some of the highlights]

washingtonpost.com

<<...For Vince Kaminski, the in-house risk-management genius, the fall of Enron Corp. began one day in June 1999. His boss told him that Enron President Jeffrey K. Skilling had an urgent task for Kaminski's team of financial analysts.

A few minutes later, Skilling surprised Kaminski by marching into his office to explain. Enron's investment in a risky Internet start-up called Rhythms NetConnections had jumped $300 million in value. Because of a securities restriction, Enron could not sell the stock immediately. But the company could and did count the paper gain as profit. Now Skilling had a way to hold on to that windfall if the tech boom collapsed and the stock dropped.

Much later, Kaminski would come to see Skilling's command as a turning point, a moment in which the course of modern American business was fundamentally altered. At the time Kaminski found Skilling's idea merely incoherent, the task patently absurd.

When Kaminski took the idea to his team -- world-class mathematicians who used arcane statistical models to analyze risk -- the room exploded in laughter.

The plan was to create a private partnership in the Cayman Islands that would protect -- or hedge -- the Rhythms investment, locking in the gain. Ordinarily, Wall Street firms would provide such insurance, for a fee. But Rhythms was such a risky stock that no company would have touched the deal for a reasonable price. And Enron needed Rhythms: The gain would amount to 30 percent of its profit for the year.

The whole thing was really just an accounting trick. The arrangement would pay Enron to cover any losses if the tech stock dropped. But Skilling proposed to bankroll the partnership with Enron stock. In essence, Enron was insuring itself. The risk was huge, Kaminski immediately realized.

If the stocks of Enron and the tech company fell precipitously at the same time, the hedge would fail and Enron would be left with heavy losses.

The deal was "so stupid that only Andrew Fastow could have come up with it," Kaminski would later say.

In fact, Fastow, Enron's chief financial officer, had come up with the maneuver, with Skilling and others. In an obvious conflict of interest, Fastow would run the partnership, sign up banks and others as investors, and invest in it himself. He stood to make millions quickly, in fees and profits, even if Enron lost money on the deal. He would call it LJM, after his wife and two children.

Stupid or not, Enron did it and kept doing more like it, making riskier and riskier bets. Enron's top executives, who fancied themselves the best of the brightest, the most sophisticated connoisseurs of business risk, finally took on more than they could handle.

Fastow's plan and Skilling's directive would sow seeds of destruction for the nation's largest energy-trading company, setting in motion one of the greatest business scandals in U.S. history...>>

___________________________________
<<..."We're the world's coolest company," Skilling told the University of Virginia professors.

Lay even considered the idea of draping a giant pair of sunglasses around Enron's headquarters tower in Houston, Skilling joked.

"It was an intoxicating atmosphere," said Jeff S. Blumenthal, an Enron tax lawyer. "If you loved business and loved being challenged and working with unique, novel situations . . . it was the most wonderful place."

It wasn't just the ideas. The place was giddy with money. Enron paid employees $750 million in cash bonuses in 2000, an amount approaching the company's reported profit that year.

The princes of Enron were its dealmakers or "developers," in-house entrepreneurs who launched businesses and structured deals so they could immediately claim huge profits for the company -- and bonuses for themselves -- while saving the problems for later.

From the company's earliest days, those princes flew around the world, overpaying for power plants in India, Poland and Spain, a water plant in Britain, a pipeline in Brazil, and thousands of miles of Internet cable. Enron accumulated 50 energy plants in 15 countries. Virtually none of them were profitable.

Lou L. Pai, a Skilling favorite, set up an Enron division that sold electricity to businesses. Pai received numerous stock options as compensation. He sold $270 million worth of Enron stock in the 16 months before he left the company last year.

"The culture at Enron is all about 'me first, I want to get paid,' " Hermann said. "I used to tell people if they don't know why people are acting a certain way, go look up their compensation deal and then you'll know. There were always people wanting to do deals that didn't make sense in order to get a bonus."

Porsches replaced pickup trucks in the company parking lot as even secretaries became paper millionaires. There were mansions in Houston's posh River Oaks neighborhood, vacation homes in Aspen. Everybody went along for the company's wild ride...>>

___________________________________
<<...To much of the world, Jeff Skilling looked like a genius. Between January and May 2000, the stock price had risen nearly 80 percent, to $77 a share. Enron insiders -- Lay and Skilling among them -- had cashed out more than $475 million worth of stock. Everybody was getting rich.

A High-Tech Ponzi Scheme

But Enron had created only an illusion of ever-expanding revenue and profits.

The company still needed increasing amounts of cash for its profligate new ventures and expanding energy-trading operations. Its grab bag of pipelines and plants could not produce enough money to drive the growth that Lay and Skilling demanded.

As Fastow explained in a CFO Magazine article, Enron could not keep borrowing in traditional ways without scaring lenders away and damaging its credit rating. Enron's investment-grade credit was just high enough to ensure that it could get the cash it needed to settle its energy contracts when they came due.

So Enron turned itself into a factory for financial deals that would pump up profit, protect its credit rating and drive up its stock price.

In the 1990s, banks and law firms began aggressively peddling "structured finance," complex deals in which companies set up separate affiliates or partnerships to help generate tax deductions or move assets and debts off the books. With Skilling's ascension to the presidency in 1997, Enron became increasingly dependent upon such deals to hit its financial targets.

"Skilling's participation in the LJMs and the other vehicles was probably the most important part of his job," said John Ballentine, a former president of an Enron pipeline subsidiary and a corporate vice president.

The company teamed up with the brightest minds in banking, accounting and law to create scores of secretive deals with exotic code names such as Braveheart, Backbone, Rawhide, Raptor and Yosemite.

Enron used the deals for various purposes. The LJM partnerships hedged risky stock investments such as Rhythms. An affiliate named Whitewing took billions of dollars of debt off of the company's books. In some cases, Enron "sold" money-losing foreign assets to the partnerships, added the proceeds to its quarterly financial statement and then bought the assets back in the next reporting period.

To entice banks and others to invest in the deals, Enron privately pledged millions of shares of its stock to guarantee against any losses. It was a risky gambit, exposing the company to losses if the price of its shares dropped and it could not cover its obligations...>>

______________________________
<<...As the top finance man at Enron, Fastow was responsible for Enron's overall financial stability.

He was known as an intimidating and single-minded self-promoter. He liked to say that capitalism was about survival of the fittest. He flogged his team so furiously to close deals that they often made business calls in the middle of the night. Executives who attended meetings with Fastow recall him freely putting down older colleagues or anybody he perceived as weak.

As unpopular as he was, Fastow was untouchable. Skilling was positively enamored of him. "Fastow was Skilling's favorite," Enron lawyer Jordan Mintz said later.

But even Skilling later conceded to investigators that Fastow could be a "prickly guy that would tell you everything wrong about others and everything right about himself."

Fastow was also something of a mystery. He rarely attended the quarterly briefings Enron staged for financial analysts, making him the butt of a Wall Street wisecrack: "Name Enron's CFO."

He spent much of his time as managing partner of the LJM partnerships. Although he later said he spent only three hours a week on the partnerships, colleagues complained that he was constantly working on his own deals. He jetted to New York, California, Florida and the Caribbean, hunting investors...>>

_____________________________
<<...Fastow strong-armed Enron's major Wall Street banking partners, threatening to take away Enron's banking business if they did not put money into his fund, former Enron treasurer Jeffrey McMahon said later.

The banks put up a "huge outcry," but many ultimately invested, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.

"The banks complained they were being told that investing in LJM2 was a quid pro quo for future Enron business," McMahon later told investigators.

Fastow used the soft touch with people like Joe Marsh. A wealthy Floridian, Marsh had been approached in 2000 by his Merrill Lynch stock adviser about investing $1 million in LJM2. Fastow's partnership would do deals with Enron, promising gaudy annual returns of 20 percent or more.

At first, Marsh was skeptical. "It sure sounded like a conflict of interest," he said. So his broker arranged for Marsh to do a conference call with other investors and Fastow.

Fastow was knowledgeable, at ease and persuasive, Marsh said. "He said he was putting in $5 million of his own. His wife was mad at him for doing it, but he really believed in it," Marsh said. Enron's lawyers and accountants, the board, Merrill Lynch, everyone had approved it. "It got flying colors." Marsh was convinced. He put in $1.6 million.

Fastow had married into a wealthy Houston family. He wanted wealth of his own, colleagues said.

At Enron, Fastow made about $2.4 million in salary, bonus and incentives. But he had long chafed at the huge bonuses that division chiefs were getting from big power plant and pipeline deals. He wanted a similarly lucrative payday for himself. He got one from LJM1 in the spring of 2000, when Enron and the partnership ended the Rhythms transaction.

Three London bankers who have been accused in criminal fraud complaints of joining with Fastow to cheat their bank in the Rhythms deal had a pithy take on what motivated him. "We should be able to appeal to his greed," one of the bankers e-mailed another in February 2000.

Fastow's dealings with the British bankers were not revealed until much later. Fastow's secret profit from LJM1 and the Rhythms deal was staggering: a $1 million investment turned into a $22 million profit in less than a year.

A Closely Held Secret

For a while, LJM2 looked like a great deal for everyone.

From 2000 on, the LJM deals provided most of Enron's profits, though they remained invisible to outside investors.

At the end of each financial quarter, whenever Enron needed to sell a pipeline or Internet cable, or execute a helpful commodities trade, it would turn to Fastow for almost instant results.

Even inside Enron, the exact details were a closely held secret. People gossiped that Fastow was getting rich, but nobody asked how rich.

Enron's board, which twice waived the company's code of ethics to allow Fastow's dual roles, could have asked, but it did not until too late. Board members later said they were misled by Enron executives. The board set up an elaborate system for monitoring Fastow, with three committees assigned to the task. But board members put little energy into it, repeatedly failing to ask pointed questions, a Senate subcommittee later concluded.

As Enron's chief financial officer, Fastow was supposed to be the company's financial watchdog, even in the LJM transactions. But Fastow personally profited if LJM bested Enron in negotiations. Some Enron colleagues say Fastow bullied subordinates to win an advantage for LJM. He pressured one, William Brown, to close a deal on terms unfair to Enron, Brown later told investigators.

As more colleagues came to believe that Fastow was enriching himself and a few close to him, the deals became a source of envy and suspicion...>>

______________________
<<...On July 12, 2001, in one of those routine rites of business, Skilling fielded questions from Wall Street analysts about the company's second-quarter financial results. Skilling batted away the analysts' mild queries. Enron had "outstanding" results, he said, a 40 percent increase in profit.

Finally, Skilling was asked an obscure-sounding question by Carol Coale, a securities analyst with Prudential Securities Inc. in Houston and a growing skeptic.

What about Enron's transactions with your "MLT affiliate" she asked, groping for the correct name, LJM.

Skilling mentioned there were "a couple of real minor things" with LJM, before dismissing the question: "There are no new transactions in LJM."

"He's lying to me," Coale thought. She, too, had been piecing together the sketchy clues from Enron's financial statements. She suspected that Enron was using LJM to hide big losses.

But she did not press him. People who dealt with Skilling knew not to do that. And despite her misgivings, Coale did not feel that she had enough information to advise investors to sell their Enron stock. By the end of July 2001, Lay and Skilling were on the road again, telling analysts that Enron had never been stronger.

The response was nearly unanimous: "Buy, buy, buy."

The full story of LJM remained hidden...>>
__________________________________
Staff researchers Margot Williams, Lucy Shackelford, Mary Lou White and Richard Drezen contributed to this report.

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

washingtonpost.com