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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4353)	7/28/2002 1:21:21 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95567

My guess is that we could see lows never thought possible even a few months ago. We are not seeing flight to quality, we simply seeing flight everywhere. The discounting of the future of this sector continues unabated and there are still plenty of people who point out the very high forward PEs in the sector. This is a lethal combination. We have seen the guidance in the sector become more moderate for most companies and down right awful for others. The drivers of demand, wireless, PCs, networking, and information technology upgrades have been slow to recover and we are on the same treadmill we've been on for 8 or so quarters where we continue to get the exact same comments: the recovery will start in the 2nd half of the next fiscal year. Instead of guessing where bottoms may occur, I think it's wisest in the current market environment to let the trends dictate one's actions. Stops should be a critical part of the trading strategy here, whether shorting with the trend or trying to predict the bounce/bottoming of a given stock.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (4353)	7/28/2002 2:53:32 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95567

RtS, comments on your post... The first two SOX charts support your comments. The PnF chart has reversed into Xs and holds hope. stockcharts.com >Will the SOX bottom at 250? If not will the bottom be higher or lower?< 250 shows 'support' in '97/98. Oct '98 was even lower. stockcharts.com[e,a]waclyiay[d19960728,20020728][pb30!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lk14]&pref=G Since bpndx - a cousin of SOX - has reversed from the low of 8% and is now in the twenties, I think SOX will stay above 250. Other bp indicators are also near lows. The most important, bpnya, has yet to reverse. If it does, that would be cautiously bullish. If it goes down to 24% another O is added and that would be bearish. Last year's low was around 26%. The 'overvalued' cry is affecting SOX, even though we know trailing PE is not the way. Manipulation, like GS's, also plays a role. We're swimming with sharks here. Gottfried