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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mistermj who wrote (62968)	7/28/2002 4:46:34 PM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 208838

An important addendum to the gold issue: After reviewing support points in gold prices (the bullion) and a conversation with Zeev, who's a better reader of macro economics than I, I've come to these revised conclusions: -- gold is at $303/oz. It broke one critical support line already. $295 is an absolute line, even intraday, that we don't want to cross. It'd be better if $300 didn't break, esp at the close. -- despite the probability of manipulation, we should assume that successful manipulators can continue to succeed at it, till proven otherwise. -- sure, a short squeeze is likely in the next 1 to 3 days, but most short positions can be covered in one day. -- nearterm, without inflation, the only real reason to anticipate a longer rise is if you're convinced that JPM and others are being compelled to buy in mass quantities out of desperation. -- I think there is a need for them to buy, but with the dollar being supported and inflation low, their need is not a panic-stricken one. So my gold decisions this week will be solely based on short squeezes and earnings reports due. It's simply too risky to bet against the house. -- longer term, since I don't see inflationary pressures yet (too big an unemployed pool so no upward wage pressure), an extended gold rise can't be called YET. However, in anticipation that there'll be an emotion driven return to gold in the Sept-Oct tax-loss-selling downturn, and post-Thanksgiving, when I expect to see the beginnings of that decline into next summer's bottom, gold can certainly re-enter the picture as equity holders seek safe haven. But this chart suggests to me that gold is likely to trade between (on the XAU) 54 and 66.50 (hard resistance at 70), or within a 24% range, for awhile. bigcharts.marketwatch.com Because there's soft resistance points in between, I expect it to be rare when a golddigger exceeds a 10% gain day any time soon. (Once again, I exhibit my schizo marketcall nature, eh? Ah well, in the past 3 months I've just learned ya gotta dance like a butterfly and be open to change, if yer gonna survive the Thrilla of Godzilla market...)